The Atlanta Braves rotation is in an odd place two weeks into the season. While not the biggest reason for the team’s abysmal start to 2025, they have so far regressed after leading MLB in strikeouts and finishing third in ERA a year ago. Outside of the sensational Spencer Schwellenbach, everyone else has been thoroughly mediocre by their standards through two or three starts. Furthermore, the unfortunate news broke earlier this week that 2024 breakout star Reynaldo López will miss most of, if not the whole season, after undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery.
The loss of López is devastating for a staff that already lost Max Fried and Charlie Morton to free agency this past offseason. The Dominican righty was instrumental to the rotation’s success in 2024, posting an incredible 1.99 ERA/208 ERA+ in 135 2/3 innings. The problem, though, is that that’s more innings than he threw in 2022 and 2023 combined, when he served as a reliever for the Chicago White Sox. Such a drastic increase makes his injury all too predictable in hindsight.
Now, with three-fifths of the rotation from last year out of the picture, it’s fair to wonder if GM Alex Anthopoulos made a big mistake in opting against signing a proven starter in the offseason. This unit’s depth will be tested more than ever moving forward. Fortunately for Atlanta, one major reinforcement is on the way.
Strider Set to Return to Braves Rotation Next Week
Spencer Strider appears ready to return after missing all but two starts a year ago following elbow surgery. “The Quadfather” has made light work of the poor Triple-A hitters he has faced during his rehab assignment.
Spencer Strider just struck out 13 of the 21 batters he faced on 90 pitches… Chat, is that good?
5.1 IP | 3 H | 1 ER | 2 BB | 13 SO pic.twitter.com/3MDs4zZArV
— Gwinnett Stripers (@GoStripers) April 10, 2025
With Strider back in the fold any day now, the Braves rotation will boast a formidable 1-2-3 punch of Chris Sale, Schwellenbach, and Strider. This trio will carry the staff throughout the season and would line up extremely well in a playoff series should Atlanta overcome the odds to make it that far. However, they can only account for 60% of the team’s starts at most. Unfortunately, the other 40% looks rough at the moment.
Depth Starters Need to Step Up
The fourth and fifth spots in the Braves rotation are problematic without López, and will continue to be unless someone steps up in a big way. At this point, Grant Holmes looks poised to hold down one of those spots for the foreseeable future. The former first-round pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers had an exceptional, out-of-nowhere rookie season a year ago, and will be under considerable pressure to build on this success. He has done a solid job of keeping runs off the board in two starts so far against elite lineups (Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies), but has struggled with walks (four in each start). Banking on a late-blooming journeyman to give the rotation length is dicey at best, but Holmes is currently far and away the Braves’ best option after the big three.
After Holmes is where it gets ugly. Righties AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder currently occupy the fourth and fifth spots. Smith-Shawver is Atlanta’s top pitching prospect and has shown flashes in the past, but he has struggled badly in two starts so far. In particular, his fastball is getting crushed to the tune of a .438 batting average and .563 wOBA against.
Elder was similarly bad in his lone start, albeit against the mighty Dodgers lineup. This comes on the heels of a terrible 2024 in which he posted a 6.52 ERA and failed to stick in the big leagues. The fact that he even got another chance this year is a testament to the lack of depth in the Braves rotation, and a return to pre-2023 All-Star Break form seems incredibly unlikely.
The Last Word
Making matters worse for the Braves, there are no legitimate options in Triple-A Gwinnett. Hurston Waldrep is not far enough along in development to warrant a look, and Dylan Dodd has a career 7.68 ERA in seven big league starts. The lack of organizational depth at starting pitcher has the Braves hamstrung at the moment.
Atlanta will just have to hope for Smith-Shawver to learn on the fly, Holmes to continue his breakout, and no one else to get hurt. If they’re lucky, someone will come out of nowhere like Schwellenbach last year, but that is wishful thinking. If the Braves can climb back into contention, Anthopoulos should look to add to this group before the trade deadline.
Photo Credit: © Mady Mertens-Imagn Images
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