What will the Braves get from Jurickson Profar once he returns?

Or—”What to expect when expecting a player back from a PED suspension”

Jurickson Profar can return from his 80-game drug suspension on Sunday, June 29th. The Atlanta Braves never really replaced his 2024 Padres production in their left field this year. How much of those 2024 numbers were drug-enhanced and what would a “clean” Profar look like going forward?

As far as the effects of human chorionic gonadotropin and their absence on a professional athlete, I have no idea. It’s not a cop-out, I just literally don’t know. I’m not a doctor, I’m a baseball blogger who probably looks exactly like you think I look minus 80 pounds and without the Snickers bar wrappers. But since I look at data, I can look at that and determine how suspended MLB players perform before and after their 80-game mandatory vacation.

Here’s the list of MLB players that have 80-game substance abuse suspensions since 2015, with a brief description of their production before and after the suspensions. The time away, and perhaps the substance going away, doesn’t seem to make any difference in their career trajectories. Most of these players were replacement-level, or below-average, or Quad-A types who perform exactly the same way after the suspension. There are a few exceptions. Ramon Laureano was an average outfielder before his suspension and was more below-average afterward. Cody Stanley was a 4th round pick and looked on his way to a decent career. He was out of baseball afterward. But for the most part, it doesn’t matter.

When there is a drop-off, like with Robinson Cano and Welington Castillo, it’s because they are in their 30s and on the back end of their career. Jurickson is 32 years old. If he’s cooked already, then the suspension reenforces it. But if he was cooked, he probably doesn’t get signed over the winter.

I think he still have a minor step down from what he would have done in 2025 otherwise. The big question is, which Jurickson Profar is the right one, the average bat and poor defense from 2012-2023, or the terrific bat and horrid defense from 2024? If he’s the player he was from 2023 prior, then he’s done and serves as a 30MM Braves lesson learned. If he’s 2024 Jurickson Profar, then he’s fine. So has he made a change in his approach in 2024 or was it the juice? I’ve identified a few things which appear to be sustainable.

Here’s are Profar’s plate discipline numbers from 2024, his career to date, and what the rest of baseball is doing in 2025. As a rule, he’s always been more patient and doesn’t swing as much. He definitely doesn’t chase as much. The o-swing percentage (number of swings outside the strike zone) is much lower (24.9% career vs MLB average 31.3%). He brought that percentage down to 22.4% in 2024. The z-swing percentage (swinging at strikes) ticked higher to 67.0%. The contact numbers are higher than the average hitter as well and those didn’t change.

Just those changes helped him make an enormous leap in production as shown in his swing profile. He added 18 runs to his production by having excellent plate discipline to help him not to chase pitches well off the strike zone. He also picked up another 14 runs by actually killing strikes and adding power. Let’s look at the places he was hunting for pitches.

These blobs of ink show us where the ball is when Jurickson swings before 2024 (left) and during 2024 (right) when he is htting left-handed. This shows that he is looking to attack at strikes that are away but ignore balls inside. He’s swinging at inside balls half as much and swinging at away strikes as high as 25% more.

Here’s the profile from the right side. It shows a similar approach: cut inside ball swings in half while increasing swings at away strikes. It suggests that he changed his hitting stance and is leaning over the plate more. This is a typical plate appearance from a double in 2023.

He strikes this ball well. He’s using a closed stance and reinforces it when the pitch approaches. It looks… wonkedy. That’s not a word outside of my circle but he appears unbalanced here. He’s reaching for the ball more, it appears. This is a typical plate appearance from a double from 2024.

Here you can see Jurickson start with an open stance. He will bring his foot in front and point it slightly to the shortstop side of second base as the pitch is made. This is helping him clear his hips and generate more power. Everything looks much cleaner here and more aligned. This ain’t juice, this is excellent technique. I imagine the Braves hitting approach could break this, but I don’t know that anyone is still listening to Tim Hyers as this point anyway.

These are ZIPS projections for the life of his contract. I see the numbers where they get them, but these feel a bit bearish to me. If his changes to his hitting approach in 2024 continue going forward, he can easily beat these. But even with these, the Braves will get an offensive boost over their current left field residents.