What would trading Marcell Ozuna look like?

You can trade Marcell Ozuna, but you won’t necessarily get what you want

The “Trading Marcell Ozuna” call from some began before the Atlanta Braves got home from the West Coast after Spring Training. It was hyperbolic then, but much less so now. The Braves’ rapid descent into the Draft Lottery is in its third week now. Jeff Passan now says the most likely trade piece coming from Atlanta would be Marcell Ozuna. We can talk about it, but you probably won’t like the return. Let’s look at what a team that understands how to baseball in 2025 might receive in Marcell.

Power. You get lots of power. You get a guy who’s had 206 extra base hits, with 112 home runs since 2022. You get a guy with a career 121 wRC+ and has been at least a 40% better hitter than the rest of baseball. He’s also got 31.1 career WAR despite the fact that he hasn’t been a competent outfielder in 10 years, or can barely outrun Sean Murphy.

Here are Ozuna’s profile for the first few months of the 2025 season versus the 2024 season. The 2025 bars look way down from 2024 but look at the xwOBA numbers (xwOBA measures quality of striking the ball) and the wall numbers. The walk rate has nearly doubled from 10.8% to 19.3%, taking him from an already very patient hitter to 2000-Barry-Bonds level of patience. But the xwOBA has remained largely the same. Even with average exit velocity and barrels way down, the run outputs are barely affected (wRC+ of 154 versus 147). It just made him a different form of effective hitter (.302/.378/.546 versus .272/.413/.455). The Braves got the importance of walk rate correct in MLB’s new run environment, but they broke everything else to do it.

Here’s a decent illustration of the 2025 Braves slaptastic approach. Up until May 31st, every extra base hit but one was pulled to the left side of second base. If 2025 matched 2024’s results, he would have had hit 8 of them the opposite way. This particular trend has somewhat changed since May 31st: he’s hit a double and a home run that way this week. I am guessing Marcell had a bit of a “every man to his own tent” moment at some point last weekend, and he’s rolling back some of those adjustments. His ailing hip could be feeling better this week, so maybe that’s it too.

But whether you consider Marcell Ozuna an uber-heavy walk guy or a clobber-the-ball-into-submission guy, he carries a lot of value. So what is that value and what could the Braves get for two to four months of the 34-year-old slugger? Some of that depends on when the Braves want to call it a season and move on from being a buyer instead of a seller, and who is in the market. I think I already have an idea of what a trade might look like, but let’s look at who the Braves have traded in the last few year to acquire an outfielder.

First off, every player received has only that calendar year on their contract at the time unless I have denoted it. Also, none of the outfielders received here have Ozuna’s resume. But what it does show you is that the Braves did some pretty smart shopping. They received the 2021 NLCS MVP for Pablo Sandoval, who never played again. They received the 2021 World Series MVP for Kasey Kalich, who pitched one inning on Kansas City’s AAA team and never reached Major League Baseball. They received Joc Pederson for Bryce Ball, who was a favorite around these parts for lighting up rookie and A-ball for 19 home runs in 2019 but never progressed past Double-A. Alex Jackson and the injured-at-the-time Tyler Matzek were the only ones who saw the big leagues.

So maybe that’s just the Braves being super savvy. I looked through outfielder trades from 2021-2024 for comps and came up with these.

The first six players on this list have career WAR of 6.8 to 17.4 and a WAR of 1.0 to 4.0 for the season they were acquired. More experienced Starling Marte has 30+ career WAR like Marcell Ozuna. The MiLBers are deep in the organizational charts except for Jeremy Rodriguez, who is an 18-year-old #4 SS in Single-A. The only two notable MLB players received are Agustin Ramirez and Jesus Luzardo. Agustin Ramirez is a top catching prospect with a 119 wRC+ in his rookie season. He has decent power (8 HR/ 163 PA) and an okayish defender. But he was acquired for 2+ years of Jazz Chisholm Jr. by the Yankees, who aren’t shy about moving prospect talent.

Jesus Luzardo was acquired for 2 months of Starling Marte. This is probably the best upside comp. Luzardo was a top pitching prospect for the Oakland Athletics in 2020. He also flailed around in his first three seasons. We know him from killing the Braves in April and pitching like an All-Star this year, but he was a raw, below-replacement-level pitching prospect at the time of the trade.

This is what we have. Everyone wanting pitching for Marcell Ozuna might get it, but it will be someone currently in the minor leagues, on the AAA express, or an upside change-of-scenery guy. Polling the staff seemed to suggest that a 3ish WAR designated hitter (who is carrying an injury that may need correcting in the offseason) on a $16 MM contract has about $10-15 MM in trade value. For that kind of value, they are shopping in the discount aisle. The Braves may find an average to below-average starting pitcher who may or may not have options left. It might work out better than Bryce Elder, but that isn’t really a high bar.

I don’t have any knowledge or rumors, just trying to ballpark it here. But it will someone be that could help the Braves down the road. Or never help at all.