Physical or metaphorical locations welcome.
Chris Sale, is, well, Chris Sale.
He finished last year at 57/53/66 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-), clear “best pitcher in baseball” territory (don’t start with Tarik Skubal, who was 60/61/68). Through his first six starts, Sale was a bit off — 133/94/93, but he’s returned to his 2024-esque, extreme domination ways ever since. Yes, in his last eight starts, Sale is at 34/59/68, which looks almost identical to his 2024 season. Sure, those early outings drag him down, and he’ll have to actually keep it up, but he has a decent chance of repeating something akin to his 2024 campaign.
Most of my preseason predictions have imploded thus far, but I did think that Skubal and Sale were probably the two best pitchers going into 2025. That’s been true for Skubal, easily, and Sale still has a chance to leapfrog guys like Paul Skenes, Logan Webb, MacKenzie Gore, and Zack Wheeler. He’ll have to channel even more of his 2024 self to do so, but it’s possible.
That said, “where” can refer to more than just a metaphorical stat accumulation by the end of the year. As the Braves have gone from near-favorite to contender to “well it’s probably a lost season,” talk has shifted to whether Sale sticks on the roster for 2026. He does have an $18 million club option with no buyout for next year, so there’s no burning reason to trade him even if the rest of the season is a wash. But if the Braves made him available, he could probably fetch something pretty useful, even if bidding isn’t frenzied. Right now, I’d say there’s only like a one-in-three chance the Braves even entertain trading Sale, much less find a deal they like in July, but I’ll leave both that and the stats portion for you to work through.
Daily Notes
Record: 28-37
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: .433 / .421 (Season rank: 14th | 11th)
Yesterday’s opponent wOBA and xwOBA: .188 / .156 (Season rank: 14th | 12th)
Yesterday’s homers: 3
Yesterday’s homers allowed: 0
Record when out-xwOBAing: 19-16 (League: 715-259)
Record when out-xwOBAed: 9-21 (League: 259-715)
Record when out-wOBAing: 24-7 (League: 817-159)
Record when out-wOBAed: 4-30 (League: 159-817)
Record when outhomering: 14-7 (League: 522-152)
Record when outhomered: 5-18 (League: 152-522)