Spencer Strider has been a two-pitch artist lately, and he’s putting together masterpieces
Spencer Strider is cruising for the Atlanta Braves lately. The fastball velocity, although not quite at his pre-surgery levels right now, is returning. He averaged 96.2 MPH on Saturday and hit 98 with ease last night. The numbers since June 8th are stellar. He’s collected 26 strikeouts to 5 walks and allowed 4 earned runs and 0 home runs in 18 innings. That’s a leap from his 5.68/6.38/4.87 line in his first four starts this season. He made the Mets look sillier than they already are last night. There’s just one question you might be asking: dude, where’s your curveball?
That curveball percentage went way down since the 8th of June. It was 7.5% of his offerings before then, now it’s 2.2%. The changeup is on the endangered list as well, going from 6.3% to the tiny sliver of the pie at 1.1% after June 8th.
He added the curveball over the 2023 offseason. The 2024 pitch selection numbers look pretty close to his four starts this year. Although, he was using the curveball a shade more and his fastball a bit less. It was pretty much in line with last year’s two starts just before the arm injury. So what’s wrong with it?
Well, nothing as far as I can tell. It’s pretty delicious until it dives straight for the ground. The break has increased from 2024. The spin rate has ticked up slightly. The .146 xwOBA allowed in 2024 has been surpassed by the 2025 xwOBA at .040. Obviously, there is some small sample size, as we’re talking about 6 games here. But it looks very solid. The changeup production, however, has been brutal.
That changeup is not doing anything right now. It’s very blah, much like Mike Shildt’s true intention to fight the Dodgers last night (if anything said, “I need to pretend I want to smack someone down but you need to hold me back” it was that.) No movement there and no spin. It’s worthy of the .642 wOBA and .534 xwOBA right now. And it’s getting clobbered, again, probably much like Mike Shildt in an actual fight.
The changeup has always been a kind of show-me pitch anyway. Which of course, the vast majority of which have been shown to lefties. Lately though, it’s performing like a “hey maybe I won’t show this pitch to you” kind of pitch to everybody. So I don’t mind it being shelved for now. Good thing he has this slider working for him.
The 2025 version of the Spencer slider has more action to the glove side this year than ever. It has less drop as well. You would think with the additional left to right movement and less up and down that he would be throwing it harder. But it’s not, it dropped from the 85-86 MPH range down to 83.9. Which is handy, because the fastball has ticked down as well.
Spencer is using that right-to-left movement to work his slider more inside to lefties and away from righties. He’s staying away from the middle of the plate. The results have been substantial. He’s cut the xwOBA allowed in half from .308 to .154 across that June 8th split. A .136/.296/.318 line has been cut down to .074/.138/.111 as well. It’s his go-to breaking pitch right now, for good reason.
Now that he’s got a way to attack hitters out of the zone with sliders, he’s safe to attack the zone with fastballs. He’s stopped working high to blow away hitters because it’s tougher at 95ish than 100ish. He’s brought the attack low and middle away to lefties. However, he’s been living middle-middle more and it’d be cooler if he didn’t. The line before is a putrid .300/.404/.625 with a .448 xwOBA before the split. Afterward, the line is a more manageable .237/.286/.316 with a .294 xwOBA.
The two-pitch mix has been working for Spencer as his fastball velocity continues to climb after his lost year. I don’t know if it’s been easier to execute with the slider and fastball almost exclusively now, but the results are there. However, a Spencer Strider hot fastball, a slider with great movement, and the occasional curveball dropped on unsuspecting hitters is an excellent arsenal. The curveball right there when he wants it, no need to find it.