The Padres are one of the reasons why the Braves ended up in an early season hole. The Padres are in a hole of their own as well heading into this series. Will the Braves exacerbate their pain?
Remember the optimism of Opening Day? Indeed, there were plenty of lofty expectations surrounding the Atlanta Braves before they took the field at Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres for the beginning of a four-game series. Four games later, the Braves were still winless. Three games after that, they were still wandering around without a victory. Atlanta didn’t win until their eighth game but by then, they were back in Georgia following a horrible time in California.
Ever since that time, the Padres have continued to play pretty well and are 27-21 as they return to Cobb County to face the team that they tormented back in March. With that being said, the Padres are now the ones who are feeling down in the dumps. They’re 2-8 over their last ten games and that includes a six-game losing streak that they’re currently on. While this is still a very good team, it’s also clear that they’re not quite the juggernaut that they looked like to start the season. The six losses came in the form of a sweep during “Rivalry Weekend” at the hands of the Mariners and then a disastrous trip North of the border that saw them get swept out of Canada by the Blue Jays.
San Diego’s offense has started to level off a bit, as they’re no longer hitting at an extremely high level. Still, you’ll take a team that’s hitting .256/.321/.389 with a .314 wOBA and a team wRC+ of 102. As their wRC+ suggests, that’s slightly above average and seems to indicate that this is a reliable offense. To the shock of absolutely nobody, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are helping to lead the way in terms of offense. Jackson Merrill appears determined to prove that he’s worth every penny of the massive contract extension that he recently signed. Jake Cronenworth has continued to be a reliable source of offense, Luis Arraez keeps on hitting and Gavin Sheets has apparently figured it out in San Diego.
San Diego’s pitching staff is solid as well (and it would have to be in order to help them get to the record that they’re currently on, losing streak notwithstanding). We’ll talk more about their pitching staff as we go through the pitching matchups below but just know that it’s not going to be a walk in the park for Atlanta’s lineup in this series — even if they are getting their superstar back in right field starting this weekend.
Friday, May 23, 7:15 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports Network South/Southeast, Gray TV, MLB Network)
LHP Chris Sale (10 GS, 54.2 IP, 30.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 3.62 ERA, 86 ERA-, 3.00 FIP, 76 FIP-, 1.3 fWAR)
Sale was originally scheduled to start against the Nationals this week but Wednesday’s rainout pushed his start into this series. I suppose the Braves would be fine with having one of their top arms end up going at home against a tough team which I suppose would explain why they simply gave Sale an extra day of rest as well instead of having him finish off the series in Washington.
Either way, Sale will now be looking to set the record straight against the Padres. Sale started on Opening Day against San Diego and only went five innings while giving up three runs and striking out seven batters. It sure seemed like that start would only be a bump in the road and instead it was the beginning of Sale having a bunch of starts that looked like that one. Hopefully we’ll see Sale pick up where he last left off, which is when he threw seven innings and only gave up one run against the Red Sox.
RHP Nick Pivetta (9 GS, 50.1 IP, 28.3 K%, 7.6 BB%, 2.86 ERA, 73 ERA-, 3.10 FIP, 78 FIP-, 1.2 fWAR)
The Padres are on a six-game losing streak but you certainly can’t look at Nick Pivetta as one of the reasons why. His last outing came against the Mariners and he pitched six innings, only gave up one run on two hits and one walk with seven strikeouts. However, he left the game when it was 1-1 and it eventually turned into a 4-1 win for the Mariners. Woof!
When you put that in there with the fact that Pivetta threw seven shutout innings against the Braves back on March 30 and you also consider his impressive stat line, it would be safe to assume that we might be in for a pitchers’ duel on Friday. With that being said, Pivetta did give up six runs over just four innings against the Rockies — that might just be Coors being Coors but hey, if you want hope then there’s your morsel.
Saturday, May 24, 4:10 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports Network South/Southeast)
RHP Grant Holmes (9 GS, 51.2 IP, 23.1 K%, 11.8 BB%, 4.01 ERA, 97 ERA-, 5.21 FIP, 132 FIP-, -0.2 fWAR)
Well, it appears that Holmes finally got out of the “good start/bad start” pattern that he had fallen into for a bit, because I’d say that only giving up two runs over six innings at Fenway Park is a perfectly fine performance — even if the Braves ended up losing. It certainly wasn’t Holmes’ fault that the Braves dropped that one on Saturday and now Holmes will be getting a chance to really show the Padres what he’s capable of. He pitched an inning of relief against San Diego back on Opening Day and he struck out two batters in the process. Maybe we’ll see Holmes build on that and put up another impressive performance.
RHP Michael King (10 GS, 55.2 IP, 28.4 K%, 7.6 BB%, 2.59 ERA, 66 ERA-, 3.20 FIP, 81 FIP-, 1.4 fWAR)
While you’d be able to claim that Nick Pivetta didn’t have a lot to do with one of San Diego’s losses on this current losing streak of theirs, Michael King won’t be able to say the same thing. He gave up four runs (three earned) against the Mariners in his last outing and while he struck out eight, it wasn’t enough to help push San Diego to a win. That’s not to say that King is just in a nasty slump of some sort. From April 13 through May 12, King made six starts where he gave up two earned runs at the most and the most earned runs he’s given up in any start this season has been three — on three separate occasions, no less. Runs will very likely come at a premium with King on the mound.
Sunday, May 25, 4:10 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports Network South/Southeast)
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (10 GS, 61.1 IP, 19.8 K%, 4.8 BB%, 3.52 ERA, 85 ERA-, 3.65 FIP, 93 FIP-, 0.9 fWAR)
The good news for Schwellenbach is that he’s starting to make a habit out of going deep into games. He’s made it at least six innings in eight of the ten starts he’s made so far and he’s made it at least seven innings in three of those starts as well. One of htose six inning starts includes an outing he made during Opening Weekend in San Diego. That was when Schwellenbach went six innings and didn’t give up a single run on just one hit and one walk given up. Needless to say, the Braves would gladly take anything even approaching a repeat performance — and maybe this time, the Braves will provide some run support!
RHP Dylan Cease (10 GS, 54.0 IP, 28.2 K%, 8.4 BB%, 4.50 ERA, 114 ERA-, 3.50 FIP, 88 FIP-, 1.1 fWAR)
If the Braves are going to give Schwellenbach some run support, they’ll at least have a decent performance against Dylan Cease to look back on. The Padres may have won that game but the Braves at least put up three runs over just 4.1 innings against Cease in that one. With that being said, that’s right on the edge of what Cease has been able to call a normal start so far this season. He’s given up three runs at the most in nine of the ten starts he’s made so far this season, so he’s been pretty consistent at preventing a deluge of runs at his expense. Maybe it won’t be such a surprise if the Braves end up with three runs or less against Cease in this one. We’ll see.