Confident with good reason
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Jeff Brohm has done a fantastic job at Louisville since coming to the program 2 years ago. He has played for an ACC Championship but lost out to an undefeated FSU team. Last year they won 9 games, including a win against Clemson. Of course, last season also had its fair share of hiccups, in particular a loss to Stanford which blindsided most of ACC. Still Brohm has done a great job setting up this Louisville team for success.
Louisville isn’t a great team in terms of talent, at least not compared to teams like Clemson, Miami, and FSU. What Louisville’s program has done is make the best of the talent they do have. Jeff Brohm is a coach who excels at bringing out the best of his players and having them play consistently during every game. Consistency is key, as that is what sets apart a good football program from 90% of the teams in the ACC (see FSU last year). Louisville is certainly a good football program, and that is why they are in the running for the ACC each year.
The Roster:
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Louisville’s QB last year, Tyler Shough, was one of the NFL Draft darlings and is the top runner to start for the Saints next year. One would expect the loss of Shough to be a blow to Louisville’s offense; however, the Cardinals allegedly have a more talented starter in the wings with transfer Miller Moss who is expected to be the starter next year. Given what Shough accomplished at QB, the idea that Moss is more talented than shough should frighten most D-Coordinators that need to game plan for Louisville. Moss looked good at USC, time will tell if he is as talented as Louisville writers say.
Duke Watson and Isaac Brown are both returning at Running Back to maintain a rushing attack that averaged 185.2 yds per game and 2.2 touchdowns per game. Some of the receiving core left but they do return Chris Bell who was the 2nd best receiver on the roster last year. The O-line also return multiple players, to further complicate the problems opposing teams will have defending The Cardinals.
On Defense the top 2 line-backers return to help support the rushing defense. Louisville does have questions in the defensive secondary, but some new transfers were brought in to help fill these gaps. I can’t say for certain that the defense will be as good as last year, but the defensive front will not make things easy for opposing RBs and QBs.
The Schedule:
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Despite the talent Louisville has returning, they also have a schedule that could pose problems. Louisville has to play Miami, Clemson, and SMU, with Clemson and SMU coming in back-to-back games. The Cardinals also have Virginia Tech on the road, but the rest of the schedule should be manageable. None of these games will be impossible to win, but they will certainly be challenging for a talented but young QB like Miller Moss.
The Rub:
Louisville is just a consistently good team… I really wish I had more to comment on. Most ACC teams struggle with showing up week to week, which is why the ACC seems to have the most chaos of any conference. Part of the reason Louisville seems to have so much success is simply because they tend to dodge the ACC trend of inconsistency.
Louisville has some tough games on the schedule, but if the Cardinals can win at least 2 out of 3 of those games and take care of the rest of the winnable games on the schedule there is no reason to think they won’t be in the ACC Championship.