‘Bama and UGA further separate themselves while GT falls hard
This week provided some high-level matchups that turned into blowouts, leading to further stratification at the top of the model. At the same time, some off the radar games led to some huge risers in the “upper-middle” class.
- Current Record: 2-3
- Current Ranking and Rating: 61st, 1.18 points above average
- Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 2.98-2.02
- Future Expectations (based on TBI): 2.63-4.37
- Final Projected Record: 4.63-7.37
Week 5 Highlights
- The model was quite right that neither of the top 2 would be tested. This week, Alabama and Georgia again have name-brand foes in Texas A&M and Auburn, respectively. Once again, TBI has both of them covering, with Alabama by more than a touchdown.
- Ohio State has bounced back from the surprising Oregon loss to grab a tight hold on the third spot.
- I expected Clemson to fall hard this week after the preseason rating was further discounted, but they held on to the #4 spot with a victory over Boston College that was statistically more dominant than the scoreboard showed.
- The G5 is starting to impress TBI: Cincy is 9th, Coastal is 14th, and Fresno is still 17th.
- TBI has Penn State solidly favored in this week’s B1G showdown between Iowa and Penn State.
Tracking the Model
The Binion Index had its worst prediction week of the season in week 5, hitting 48% ATS with a mean error of 15.3 points. Vegas caught up on several teams this week, and the model was also hurt by some significant injury situations that aren’t currently being reflected (UCF chief among them).
We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.
The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After five weeks, the Binion Index would be 2nd overall ATS and just below average in absolute error.
Season to Date ATS: 137-120-6 (53.2%)
ATS Goal: >=55%
Season to Date Absolute Error: 14.1
Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5