UGA takes command, Top Ten Coastal, and Top 50 GT
We’ve reached the unofficial halfway point of the college football season. That means I’m already sad that the offseason isn’t far away, but it also means that our data keeps growing, and our model is improving.
This week, I provide one more increase in weighting to strength of schedule now that the sample size has become more meaningful.
- Current Record: 3-3
- Current Ranking and Rating: 48th, 2.97 points above average
- Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 3.55-2.45
- Future Expectations (based on TBI): 2.38-3.62
- Final Projected Record: 5.38- 6.42
Week 6 Highlights
- The top 2 has become a top 1, at least for now. Georgia rolls again and begins to separate a bit from ‘Bama. Ohio State is crushing people and pushing towards #2 themselves.
- As the strength of schedule weight turned up, Florida and Clemson get significant bumps from their extremely difficult schedules to data.
- Maybe Cincy shouldn’t be the only G5 team in the playoff conversation? Coastal is 7th! They are rolling over everyone in their path.
- The sickos game of the week might be an SEC matchup? Vandy- South Carolina is ugly.
Tracking the Model
The Binion Index had its best prediction week of the season in week 6, hitting 59% ATS with a mean error of 11.2 points.
We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.
The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After six weeks, the Binion Index would be 2nd overall ATS and 23rd in absolute error.
Season to Date ATS: 167-141-6 (54.1%)
ATS Goal: >=55%
Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.6
Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5