Rocky Top Rules the Week, Michigan Keeps Rising, and Illinois Deserves Attention
National Headlines
- Tennessee dethrones Alabama but doesn’t move in the rankings, as Alabama had the slight edge in post-game win expectancy
- Oregon has dominated everyone since Week 1 and has rocketed up the ratings
- Illinois cracks the Top Ten after dominating Minnesota
- Colorado wins and isn’t on the bottom anymore!
GT Check-In
- Current Record: 3-3
- Current Ranking and Rating: 76th, -3.5 rating
- Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 2.56-3.44
- Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1.98-4.02
- Final Projected Record: 5.0-7.0
Tracking the Model
The Binion Index has continued to trend in good direction performance-wise, hitting 53% or higher for the fourth straight week. We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.
The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After five weeks, the Binion Index would be 6th overall ATS and 28th in absolute error.
Season to Date ATS: 51.1%
ATS Goal: >=55%
Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.2
Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5
Week 7 Ratings
Conference and Division Ratings