Georgia races further out in front, and the top 4 looks pretty clear on the eve of the first CFP rankings
- Georgia dominates in Jacksonville and pulls away from the pack
- Pittsburgh and Michigan stumble on the field but not too much in the ratings
- Coastal falls hard after back to back mediocre outings
- Wake moves up again! To #60. Their SOS will get a bump once they finally face Clemson.
- Current Record: 3-5
- Current Ranking and Rating: 70th, 0.32 points above average
- Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 3.95-4.05
- Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1:25-2.75
- Final Projected Record: 4.25- 7.75
Tracking the Model
The Binion Index bounced back in week 9, hitting 53% ATS with a mean error of 12.4 points. Slightly bumping up schedule adjustments, and further phasing out preseason projections helped get back ahead of Vegas.
We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.
The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After seven weeks, the Binion Index would be 3rd overall ATS and 27th in absolute error.
Season to Date ATS: 243-219-8 (52.6%)
ATS Goal: >=55%
Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.7
Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5