The expanded College Football Playoff kicks off this evening with #7 seed Notre Dame playing host to #10 Indiana.
How they got here: The Hoosiers have had a season for the ages, winning 11 games for the first time in program history. The Fighting Irish also won 11 games, dropping only a decision to the vaunted Huskies of Northern Illinois. These teams rank 63rd and 67th in strength of schedule, and I feel fairly confident saying that if either had played the nation’s toughest schedule like the Georgia Bulldogs they wouldn’t be here. Nevertheless as CFP Committee chair Warde Manuel said (specifically in reference to Indiana) teams can only play the schedule in front of them. And for the most part both Curt Cignetti and Marcus Freeman’s squads have done that.
Key Matchups
- Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke versus the Notre Dame secondary. Indiana signal caller Kurtis Rourke has played one whale of a season of football. The Ohio transfer has completed 70.4% of his passes for 2,827 yards and 27 touchdowns versus just 4 interceptions. Rourke’s also averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt. The 6’5, 223 pound Canadian isn’t much of a running threat, but his ability to distribute the ball and move just enough to find open passing lanes will be a challenge for the Fighting Irish secondary.
That secondary by the way has had one of the best years of any in the nation. The Irish are third nationally in passing defense, surrendering 157.9 yards per game, and fourth nationally in interceptions with 17 takeaways. The Hoosiers have five receivers with over 300 yards receiving on the season, headlined by Elijah Sarratt (49 catches, 890 yards, 8 touchdowns). Indiana offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan (no, not that one, and no they’re not related) has been fantastic at creating mismatches in 2024.
2. The Indiana offensive line versus the playmaking Notre Dame front seven. The Hoosiers gave up 5 sacks in their only loss of the season to Ohio State. The Fighting Irish, led by senior defensive tackles Rylie Mills (6.5 sacks) and Howard Cross (4.0) average a solid 2.5 sacks and 5.1 tackles for loss per game. Notre Dame thrives on getting teams behind the sticks. Avoiding that will be a key to victory.
3. Notre Dame tailback Jeremiyah Love versus the Indiana defense. Love has 134 carries for 949 yards and 15 TDs so far this season.While that’s not a ton of yards it’s also not a ton of carries. And Love’s 7.1 yards per touch indicate that the Irish are doing a great job of using both QB Riley Leonard and Love to play balanced football.
Indiana on the other hand leads the nation in rushing defense, giving up a super-stingy 70.8 yards per game and 2.40 yards per carry. If Notre Dame and Love can expose that as the result of a marshmallows soft schedule, the Irish may win this one by pounding the rock and keeping that high flying Hoosier offense off the field.
Score Prediction: Indiana has played one playoff caliber team this season, the Ohio State Buckeyes. They got absolutely worked over in the process. I don’t think this Notre Dame team is on that level, but I suspect they’re better up front than the Hoosiers on both sides of the line. Notre Dame gets a key turnover and moves the sticks on offense, scoring enough to win this one 27-21.
Go ‘Dawgs!!!