How good will the Falcons be? We looked around the mediascape to find out what analysts are thinking.
No more ambiguity. No more uncertainty. All 17 games of the Atlanta Falcons’ schedule have been released in their corresponding order.
Week 1: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 p.m. EST, September 7
Week 2: @ Minnesota Vikings, Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. EST, September 14
Week 3: @ Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. EST, September 21
Week 4: vs. Washington Commanders, 1 p.m. EST, September 28
Week 5: BYE WEEK
Week 6: vs. Buffalo Bills, Monday Night Football, 7:15 p.m. EST, October 13
Week 7: @ San Francisco 49ers, Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. EST, October 19
Week 8: vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. EST, October 26
Week 9: @ New England Patriots, 1 p.m. EST, November 2
Week 10: @ Indianapolis Colts (IN BERLIN) 9:30 a.m. EST, November 9
Week 11: vs. Carolina Panthers, 1:00 p.m. EST, November 16
Week 12: @ New Orleans Saints, 4:25 p.m. EST, November 23
Week 13: @ New York Jets, 1 p.m. EST, November 30
Week 14: vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1 p.m. EST, December 7
Week 15: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Thursday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. EST, December 11
Week 16: @ Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. EST, December 21
Week 17: vs. Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m. EST, December 29
Uncertainty seems to be Atlanta’s middle name, as we don’t know what to expect from second-year, first-year starting quarterback Michael Penix, Jr., and this Zac Robinson-led offense. Add in a new-look defense under head coach Raheem Morris and new defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, sports media does not have a clue where to put this team in their post-schedule release predictions.
That didn’t stop them from trying, though.
So, we decided to place all of those predictions here in our Falcons 2025 Season Prediction Roundup.
Let us know in the comments what you think this year’s Falcons team will look like!
Falcons Wire, Matt Urben – 11-6
Pro Football & Sports Network – 11-6 (NFC South Winner)
Our projections have been fairly optimistic on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but this simulation actually has the Atlanta Falcons winning the division at 11-6. Michael Penix Jr. had a breakout season as a first-year starter in our simulation, leading the Falcons to the third-highest scoring offense behind only the Eagles and Bills.
Tampa Bay is still going to the playoffs for the sixth straight season, earning the No. 7 seed with a 10-7 record. The Panthers and Saints were not nearly as fortunate. Carolina finished with its eighth straight losing season, while the 2-15 Saints bottomed out without Derek Carr and matched the Titans for the worst record in the simulation.
USA Today, Jacob Camenker – 9-8
Much of the Falcons’ success will depend on whether their defense can take a step forward. They ranked second-to-last in sacks last season (31) and 28th in defensive EPA. Atlanta spent two first-round picks on Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. to fix its pass rush, which has been a long-term issue.
Will that be enough to help the Falcons win the NFC South? The Buccaneers are still favored to win the division, but it should once again be a tight race between the division’s two top teams.
FTN Fantasy, Daniel Kelly – 8-9 (2nd in NFC South)
NFL Network, Cynthia Frelund – Projected 7.9 wins (2nd in NFC South)
Sandwiched around their Week 5 bye are the three diciest games in the Falcons’ schedule: They host Washington in Week 4, host Buffalo on Monday Night Football in Week 6 and play in San Francisco on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. The Falcons have a lot of volatility in their win-total projections, and most of it is driven by the play of second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Sports Illustrated, Gilberto Manzano – 8-9 (2nd in NFC South)
It’s tough to tell whether Michael Penix Jr. getting only three starts as a rookie will help or hurt him in his second season. On one hand, there’s not a lot of game film for opposing defensive coordinators to study. The downside? Penix lacks experience and has never been tested for a full NFL season. He’ll face fellow 2024 first-round QBs McCarthy and Daniels in Weeks 2 and 4, respectively.
Fox Sports, Greg Auman – 7-10 (2nd in NFC South)
So much hinges on how well second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. can play. If he can just get to 20 touchdown passes, he’ll be the first Falcons QB to do so since Matt Ryan, who did it for 13 straight seasons from 2009-21. Atlanta used its top two draft picks (and next year’s first-rounder) to get a pair of stud rookie pass rushers in Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. Can they spark a defense that gave up 30-plus points in five losses last season? The Falcons swept the Bucs last year, but faded in the second half badly enough to let Tampa Bay win the division by two games. The larger question: If the Falcons are 7-10 and miss the playoffs for an eighth year in a row, are the head coach and general manager back for 2026?
Bleacher Report, Moe Moton – 10-7 (NFC South Winner)
Penix will experience more growing pains as he develops in a starting role. Consequently, the Falcons could struggle against opponents with an experienced defensive-minded head coach like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots.
However, first-rounders Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. and 10th-year veteran Leonard Floyd will provide a significant boost to the Falcons’ pass rush, keeping them competitive when Penix has off weeks. So unlike last year, this team can win with its defense.
The Falcons go 5-1 against divisional opponents and win 10 for the season.