Hail to the nerds who love this draft.
Over the past couple of weeks, the Atlanta Falcons have been eviscerated for their resource allocation in the 2025 NFL Draft. National media from various platforms have ripped the Falcons for their use of next year’s 1st-round pick to acquire the now-enigmatic EDGE prospect out of Tennessee, James Pearce, Jr.
Atlanta sent the 46th and 242nd picks in the 2025 draft, which the Rams used to select Oregon tight end Terrance Ferguson and Pittsburgh WR Konata Mumpfield, as well as next year’s first-round pick to move back into the first round to choose Pearce and snag a third-round pick just outside the top-100.
To most, this is an egregious misuse of resources. As The Athletic’s Josh Kendall pointed out, according to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger, Jimmy Johnson, and Rich Hill NFL Draft trade value charts, Atlanta gave up the equivalent of a mid-first-round pick to trade back into the first round. ESPN’s Kevin Clark called it “awful” and “reckless.” Kendall states the NFL is “collectively wondering ‘what the heck is going on in Flowery Branch?’” as the Falcons continue to beat to the tune of their own drum when they are on the clock.
Everyone is finding this trade baffling and ultimately inexcusable.
Everyone except the numbers.
The Athletic’s Austin Mock put together an analytics-based grading system to help grade the 2025 NFL draft on a basis free of outside interference. This grading system doesn’t know the prospects, aside from the dollar value given to the slot they were chosen in and their spot on The Athletic’s consensus big board.
When given this criterion, five teams were given A-grades or better. The Cleveland Browns, the New York Giants, the Tennessee Titans, the Carolina Panthers, and…this can’t be…the Atlanta Falcons.
According to the numbers, the Falcons and their bets on building their edge room and their secondary shot them up to one of the five best grades in this year’s draft. A fact that shocked Mock, who questioned the results in his write-up.
The Falcons had a top-five draft? Really? I don’t necessarily agree with it, but I understand how we got there. So, our formula saw their controversial trade back into the first round for James Pearce Jr. as giving up the equivalent of a late first-rounder. That’s not great, but they managed to overcome it overall.
It starts with their selection of Jalon Walker, who plays a premium position and was drafted below consensus. Pearce also plays a premium position, so that helped the Falcons’ cause. Still, I can’t get over how “same-y” they appear to be, with each playing the same position and weighing less than 250 pounds. I have concerns about how those players will fit together into the same scheme outside of passing situations.
Listen, I’m no mathematician and don’t pretend to be one, but Jay-Z had a line on his song “Reminder” from his 2009 album The Blueprint 3 that may fit well here: “Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.”
This draft may also give Atlanta a chance to remind the league that playing by your own rules can yield as much success as following consensus.