Was Fontenot’s bet on Penix one of the smartest decisions of the 2024 NFL Draft?
Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport did an interesting experiment we enjoy this time of year, where he went through all 32 picks from the 2024 NFL draft and re-drafted them based on their performance in their rookie season. Through the experiment, nine players jumped up ten or more spots, and 18 saw their spots drop, with eight players falling out of the first round entirely.
Five teams were better off with the players they originally drafted, one of which was the Atlanta Falcons and their then-controversial decision to select Washington QB Michael Penix, Jr. In a certain light, this could be further vindication that the Falcons made the right decision despite the naturally divisive nature of the pick.
The Atlanta Falcons were roasted in many circles after drafting Penix eighth overall in 2024. After all, the team had just handed veteran Kirk Cousins a four-year, $180 million contract.
As it happens, the Falcons knew what they were doing. Cousins fell apart as the season wore on, and while Penix and Atlanta came up short of the playoffs, Penix showed more than a little promise, including a 300-yard effort throwing the ball against the Carolina Panthers in the regular-season finale.
That game impressed Panthers head coach Dave Canales.
“He’s a stud,” Canales told reporters. “He’s an accurate passer. He threw it down the field, hit some really explosive plays. He’s got arm talent. He’s got the right demeanor, the right finish and I’m looking forward to a lot of great battles against Michael Penix.”
Is it a certainty that Penix is the guy who will lead the Falcons to their first playoff appearance since 2017? No.
But Penix showed enough in limited action for the Falcons to double down on the possibility that he could be the guy.
The other players who stayed with their original teams were:
- New England Patriots: North Carolina QB Drake Maye
- Kansas City Chiefs: Texas WR Xavier Worthy
- Baltimore Ravens: Clemson CB Nate Wiggins
- San Francisco 49ers: Florida WR Ricky Pearsall
The Chiefs and Ravens both have picks that proved their merit and are key factors in their successes in 2024. Worthy showed steady improvement as he acclimated to the offense and Wiggins allowed a 66.7 passer rating, ranking 10th among cornerbacks.
With Maye, Pearsall, and Penix, the jury is still out. However, the flashes look to be there.
While Jerod Mayo didn’t make it to 2025, Maye’s flashes with both his arm and his legs were enough to transcend the mediocre talent that he worked with and give himself a chance to be built around in the Mike Vrabel era.
Pearsall had as rough a start to a rookie season as you can have when he was shot in the chest on August 31st. After pushing through this traumatic ordeal, 50 days later, Pearsall made his debut on October 20th. Despite his ups and downs, he finished the year off with a bang. In the final two weeks of the 2024 season, Pearsall hauled in 14 of his 18 targets (77.77%) for 210 yards and two touchdowns.
That brings us to Penix.
Three games, 737 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. Not the most inspiring numbers on the surface, but Penix has shown enough to warrant some excitement, with some thrilling late game performances in his very limited work during the 2024 season.
Of the 46 quarterbacks with 100+ attempts on the season, Penix ranks 16th in adjusted net yards per attempt (6.29) and 2nd in the class behind only Jayden Daniels at 14th (6.50).
Does this mean that Atlanta’s decision to pick Penix and sign Cousins was a good decision? Not necessarily, the process is still quite flawed when you make two such major investments and one of them works out incredibly poorly, especially given that Cousins cost the organization a fifth-round pick because they tampered to get him.
But, this re-draft is a good sign that the narrative around the pick is changing. And it’s changing for the better.