Doubling down for years has cost the Saints, and they should continue to pay the piper in 2025.
For a long time, the New Orleans Saints were one of the darlings of the NFL mediasphere. This was a dual function of lamprey-in-a-human-suit Sean Payton attaching himself to reporters and a sustained level of small market competence the rest of the NFC South simply didn’t measure up to. From 2009 to 2013, the Saints were one of the better teams in the NFC minus one 7-9 season, and they rebounded from three straight 7-9 campaigns to post five straight winning seasons from 2017 to 2021. That plus a relentlessly attention-seeking head coach and a few standout stars will get you plenty of respect, and the Saints reveled in it.
Those days are over. While they exceeded expectations and went 9-8 in 2023, they went 7-10 in 2022 and 5-12 in 2024, turning in a -60 point differential last year and cycling quarterbacks and coaches along the way. They have a new head coach and a new starting quarterback in 2025 with Derek Carr retiring, but this is nobody’s idea of a great roster, filled as it is with young players still needing to prove themselves, free agent signings that had to be made on a budget, and stars who are aging out of greatness. The Saints have an annoying habit of sticking around and staying relevant when you’ve counted them out, and perhaps they will climb out of the muck they find themselves in sometime in the back half of this decade.
Now, though? The Saints seem like a strong bet to find themselves in the basement of the NFC South, which is why I’m kicking off a divisional opponent review with them with no small amount of glee.
How last year went
It was a disaster, though they still beat the Falcons once because they’re the most annoying team in the world.
After a blazing hot start that saw the Saints go 2-0 and get Derek Carr bewildering MVP buzz, the team predictably crashed down to earth. Carr got Olave hurt on a hospital ball, Kamara went from putting up five touchdowns to managing just three over the rest of the season, and Carr himself ended up hurt, cratering the offense. So after winning their first two games, the Saints lost their next seven, which got Dennis Allen fired hard in favor of high-end special teams weirdo Darren Rizzi, who turned around and went 3-5 the rest of the way.
The end result was the worst record (5-12) that the Saints have had since the 2005 season, and the big collapse the team has been flirting with by doubling down on a creaky roster for years. Would it be the wakeup call New Orleans leadership needed to blow it up and start over?
How the Saints have changed
To answer the question in the previous paragraph: Not really, but kind of. The Saints have avoided adding more fuel to the raging cap fire they’ve stoked for years, which counts as a kind of progress. The Saints are only set to be $19.7 million over the cap heading into 2026, which puts them ahead of the Chiefs ($24.6 million) and Vikings ($51 million) instead of by far in last place in terms of space available.
The team doesn’t have it in their DNA to try to crater and endure a couple of giving up years, as they still managed to free up space to sign free agents, but the departure of Derek Carr gave them some cash back and put them in a place where they’re reliant on two young, underwhelming quarterback options. The net effect will likely be pretty dismal, but there was at least a game effort to try to keep this thing on the surface of the water from Mickey Loomis, who does not appear to know how to do anything but press the big red button that says “KEEP GOING.”
The offense has only changed in a handful of spots, but all of them are significant. Rookie tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. has a ton of potential—the Falcons were rumored to have some level of interest in him—but isn’t guaranteed to hit the ground running. Second-year tackle Taliese Fuaga has made the shift to right tackle to accommodate Banks, and underwhelming tackle Trevor Penning is now penciled in at left guard, leaving the Saints with two high-end options at center and right guard and a lot of question marks. The addition of Brandin Cooks gives the team a big upgrade over the likes of A.T. Perry and Mason Tipton, but Cooks is going to be 32 this season and is coming off the quietest season of his career after appearing in just 10 games.
This is an odd mismash of an offense, then, where they’re counting on beating Father Time in spots while elevating young talent in others. I don’t think there’s enough here to rise above average, though Olave, Cooks, and Kamara are all capable of stretches of greatness.
The defense has changed less drastically. Isaac Yiadom is a downgrade even on the busted version of Marshon Lattimore we’ve seen of late, while Justin Reid is a clear upgrade over what the Saints had a safety a year ago. Up front, they’re largely reliant on the same solid (but relatively thin) group plus Devon Godchaux, who had a mediocre but durable year with the Patriots.
When you go 5-12, significant upgrades are needed to bounce back. The Saints clearly think they will get better health and better performances from their incumbents, one of their young quarterbacks will take off, and additions like Cooks, Reid, and Godchaux will change their trajectory. If they believe that, they’re delusional or they’re hoping their fans are, because this team is looking like a microwaved bag of mediocrity.
2025 scenarios
Best case
Either Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough ends up being a pleasant surprise, Chris Olave stays healthy, and veterans like Alvin Kamara, Brandin Cooks, and Juwan Johnson stave off ailments and age to help the Saints deliver a surprisingly competent offense. The defense gets high-end contributions from new additions like Devon Godchaux and Justin Reid, young would-be stars like Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alontae Taylor grow into terrific play, and a middling pass rush does enough to keep them in games.
That in flux roster, guided by new coach Kellen Moore, is unexpectedly feisty in a shaky NFC South. They end the year 8-9…which might still be good for last but probably puts them third.
Worst case
This is a team gunning for the #1 overall pick in a year where Arch Manning decides to stay in school. Shough and Rattler both quickly prove to be backup-caliber quarterbacks, Kamara shows his age, Chris Olave is hurt again, and a re-tooled offensive line just isn’t good enough to lift those disparate pieces up. The defense disappoints outside of a tiny handful of stars, particularly in a rebuilt secondary, and Moore doesn’t prove to be the kind of wizardly head coach who can make chicken cordon bleu out of chicken crap.
These Saints finish 4-13 and dead last in the NFC South, and Mickey Loomis somehow keeps his job and promises New Orleans will contend in 2026 despite being over the cap with a hideous roster. This is the worst case scenario for the Saints, but the best case scenario for certified Saints haters like…well, like all of us.
Likely case
Sometimes the likely case is just one of the poles; in this case, the Saints will likely end up smack dab in the middle.
So much depends on the quarterback play from Shough, Rattler, or both. Shough is an old, skittish prospect with a terrific arm and a major injury history; he’s like Diet Michael Penix Lite with zero caffeine on those last two items. Rattler is, I believe, a better quarterback but not one who put together anything inspiring in 2024 to make me believe he can excel with a similarly lackluster Saints roster. Both will likely make starts in 2025; neither is likely to be better than a below average starter.
The rest of the offense has real talent (Olave, Kamara, Rashid Shaheed) but only Kamara benefits from the kind of checkdown-heavy quarterbacking that can result from shaky play at tackle and one guard spot. Kamara is also 30 years old and has never appeared in a full NFL season as a starting running back, while Olave has been dealing with plenty of injuries himself. The defense has quality pieces from Pete Werner to Demario Davis to Justin Reid, but many of their best players are older, too, and the depth is much shakier than it once was. Outside of Reid, the secondary is an obvious trouble spot unless McKinstry takes a big step forward, and even then it would be a mixed bag.
Does that sound like a would-be contender to you? It doesn’t to me, and I think the best the Saints can hope for is that it’s enough to carry them to six wins. I ultimately think they’ll wind up with five or six and a cozy home in the basement of the NFC South, where I hope they forever remain.