Expectations are high that Jalon Walker and James Pearce will be featured a lot, but there could be obstacles blocking them from breakout seasons.
The Atlanta Falcons’ selection of a pass-rusher in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft should not have surprised anyone. However, their choice to double dip at the position did catch many off guard. The selection of Jalon Walker and trading up for James Pearce showed general manager Terry Fontenot’s commitment to upgrading an inept pass rush that has tallied a league-low sack total across his four seasons running the team.
Now that Fontenot and the front office have acquired the players, it’ll be on the team’s coaching staff to get the most out of them on the field. Falcons head coach Raheem Morris has been open about how “intentional” he plans to be with the 2025 crop of defensive additions, including Walker and Pearce, in contrast to the 2024 draft class, where very few of their picks saw extended reps on the field.
But despite best-laid plans, will Morris and new defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich be committed to getting the most out of Pearce and Walker this season by playing them as much as possible?
The Falcons finally have a fully stocked edge room, thanks not only to the newly arrived dynamic duo of Walker and Pearce, but also their cumulative additions over recent years. Past early-round draft selections of Arnold Ebiketie, Zach Harrison, and Bralen Trice are also being counted on to uplift the team’s pass rush. In addition, the Falcons’ most expensive free-agent addition was veteran pass-rusher Leonard Floyd.
While Pearce and Walker certainly carry the highest profile of that group due to their status as first-round picks, those other players are also here to get the quarterback on the ground. Given that rookie pass rushers don’t always impact immediately, the more experienced players could block Walker and Pearce from seeing the extended opportunities that this coaching staff intends them to have.
Can the Falcons get more from rookies than from veteran edges?
Expectations are sky-high for both Walker and Pearce, but as outlined earlier this offseason, a typical first-round pass rusher can expect to produce 5.2 sacks, 36 pressures, and a win rate of 11 percent in their first NFL seasons on average.
Those are far from bad numbers, but they may not match the contributions the Falcons could get from their veterans. For instance, Ebiketie is an ascending player coming off a 2024 season that saw him collect six sacks, 39 pressures, and a 12.5 win rate. If he takes another step as a pass-rusher, his production should exceed that of Walker and Pearce’s first-year projections.
Floyd is also coming off a solid season with the San Francisco 49ers, where he recorded 8.5 sacks and 44 pressures. However, his win rate of 8.4 percent is troubling and may signal that he’s on the decline. After all, the Falcons acquired veteran Matthew Judon last summer via trade, coming off an injury-shortened 2023 season in New England, where his win rate was just 8.9 percent despite having four sacks in four games. After tallying 15.5 sacks in his last 17 healthy games with the Patriots, Judon saw his production fall off a cliff to 5.5 sacks with the Falcons in 2024. That declining win rate in New England was a signal of the usual decline that occurs for pass-rushers once they get beyond age 30.
However, as Judon would tell you, that had less to do with any decline in skill but a very questionable scheme and usage from former defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake.
The new defensive coaching staff believes their “attacking” scheme will be far more beneficial to a veteran pass-rusher like Floyd than his predecessor’s. But it does lead to questions over whether the team can get the most out of their holdover edges like Floyd while still getting the most out of their two newest additions.
Falcons expect revamped defensive scheme to help unlock pass rush
Ulbrich certainly believes that the new scheme will have answers for that. After the draft, he discussed the early success of New York Jets defensive ends Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald during his previous stint there as defensive coordinator.
Traditionally, there are some growing pains for a young passer. Now, I’d say this: some of the stuff we’re going to bring schematically to the defense, I think, lessens that burden on some of these guys. I had a lot of success just recently with Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald in New York. Both of these young passers came in, and Jermaine, in year two, made a Pro Bowl and is an ascending player. Will, this year, had, I think, 13-something sacks. Both are very young pass rushers. But I think part of the stuff we’ll do schematically will lessen that burden, and because of that, I think they’ll have maybe a little more success early on than they would have otherwise.
As Ulbrich outlined, both Johnson and McDonald had a lot of success in their second seasons, but were far from game-changers as rookies. Both had to sit behind veterans in their first NFL seasons.
In 2022, Johnson played just 27 percent of the team’s defensive snaps while working behind veteran edge-rushers Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Meyers, and Bryce Huff. Johnson finished the season with 2.5 sacks, 14 pressures, and a win rate of 11 percent.
In 2023, McDonald saw even less work, playing in 16 percent of snaps behind Johnson, Franklin-Myers, and Huff. Per PFF, McDonald racked up three sacks, 12 pressures, with an impressive 16 percent win rate as a rookie.
Limited first-year contributions from Johnson and McDonald didn’t slow down the Jets’ defensive success, which finished among the top 10 in team sacks both years. If the Falcons could trust in their veterans to produce at that level, they probably wouldn’t have finished 31st in sacks last season. So if the team’s pass rush is going to make a major leap, they’ll need to count on both Walker and Pearce taking a bigger slice of the pie. To make their investments worthwhile, they need more from Walker and Pearce in their first seasons than what the Jets received from Johnson and McDonald.
Will a lack of size limit Walker and Pearce’s workload?
Not only do the Falcons have the potential of Ebiketie and Floyd blocking their ascension up the depth chart, but Walker and Pearce could also find themselves working behind Zach Harrison. Harrison, having bounced around as both an edge rusher and interior player during his first two NFL seasons, is expected to get extended reps at defensive end again in 2025. He could be a good bet to slide into a similar role forged by Franklin-Myers in New York, who spent the bulk of his time playing on the edge but, in passing situations, kicked inside to rush the quarterback.
Especially since Harrison’s size and strength make him a very valuable run defender at defensive end on early downs. That might help Ulbrich avoid some of the ups and downs that McDonald saw last year in New York. Despite a lot of production as a pass rusher, McDonald struggled against the run, having to take on more of an every-down role due to an injury to Johnson and the departure of Franklin-Myers. PFF ranked McDonald 127th out of 129 qualifying edges against the run last year. It contributed to the entire defense’s struggles to stop the run last year, which finished 20th against the run in DVOA after eighth and 14th-ranked finishes, respectively, the two previous years.
Given Walker and Pearce being listed under 250 pounds, there are rightful concerns over whether they have the size to hold up as every-down players as rookies, particularly on early downs.
Harrison’s size, alongside 2024 draft picks Brandon Dorlus and Bralen Trice, might be necessary to beef up a Falcons run defense that was even worse than the Jets, finishing 27th in DVOA. It is just another factor that could limit Walker and Pearce’s reps early in their career.
Rookies will have to earn their playing time on the field
However, the Falcons drafted Walker and Pearce to put the quarterback on the ground, and they will have numerous opportunities to do so this year. How many opportunities will ultimately be determined in the field? The team’s edge room hierarchy should begin sorting itself out once players return in over a month for training camp. The Falcons have a plan involving both rookie pass-rushers, which will be tweaked and adjusted accordingly once the regular season arrives.
The old adage is that you can never have enough pass-rushers, a belief that hasn’t always permeated the mindset of the Falcons over the past two decades. The team hopes their newfound strategy of throwing waves of pass-rushers at opposing quarterbacks pays off. That’s especially important given Ulbrich’s expectation that the team’s offense will score a lot of points, play with leads, and force opposing teams to become more one-dimensional while playing from behind.
If Walker and Pearce have the sort of impact as pass rushers the Falcons expect, it’ll be nearly impossible to keep them off the field.