My, how recency bias can tank a player’s fantasy value. Kyle Pitts, and rightfully so, has plummeted down the fantasy draft boards compared to past years. He has been, if not the most, then one of the most disappointing fantasy football players since his second year in the NFL. Pitts was considered an elite NFL tight end prospect and an elite prospect overall. Pitts ended the 2024 campaign with a disappointing overall PPR TE15 finish. Back in February, we wrote up about how much of a fantasy conundrum Kyle Pitts has been the last few years. Every year, one of the constant questions that comes up is, Is this the year of Kyle Pitts’ breakout?
As we begin our fantasy outlook on Pitts, we found he is not as big a disappointment as he is perceived to be. Since entering the league in 2021, among tight ends, Pitts is top 10 in targets, receiving yards, and first-down catches. He is top 16 in receptions, fantasy points, and fantasy points per game. In 2021, he was TE11; in 2022, he was TE20, but was injured, and in 2023, he was TE15. Again, these are not the numbers you drafted him for in fantasy, but just maybe the bar was set too high on him.
Kyle Pitts Fantasy Outlook: Does He Break Out?
Fantasy Football Profile: Kyle Pitts
2024 in Review
Kyle Pitts was nothing more than a TE2 last season. Among fantasy tight ends, he was 15th overall and 21st in fantasy points per game. Pitts scored 131 fantasy points, catching just 47 balls for 602 yards and four touchdowns. It was another disappointing finish for an elite prospect and top-four draft pick. All his offensive numbers dropped off except his four receiving touchdowns, which were a career high.
Pitt’s usage rate also shrank as the season progressed. He played 75.8% of the offensive snaps in weeks one through seven. From week eight on, he played just 52.3%. His season high came in week one at 96%, and in his last four games, he had a mere 44% snap rate. Pitts’ average of 8.1 yards per target was higher than both Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, the overall TE1 and TE2, respectively. His 12.8 yards per reception was third among all tight ends with at least 70 targets.
2025 Projection
Kyle Pitts is projected to score 130 fantasy points on 48 receptions for 602 yards and four touchdowns. As we further project Pitt’s 2025 fantasy outlook, here is some additional information to consider. First, Pitts is in line to be the second option in the Atlanta Falcons’ passing game behind Drake London. The data has also told us that Pitts is one of the top target share earners among fantasy tight ends. Next, Atlanta quarterback Michael Penix Jr. ranked first among rookie quarterbacks in PFF passing grade, and his 87.6 was an NFL best since the 2021 version of Robert Griffin.
Kyle Pitts Fantasy Football ADP
Kyle Pitts’ current best ball ranking is TE16 with an overall ADP of 145.4. In underdog drafts, you can get Pitts in the round 12, making him worth the risk at his lowest ever price tag based solely on talent, and the chance he outperforms his ADP. There is a path, and it’s within the range of outcomes for Pitts to again finish as a TE1 in 2025!
Main Image: Dale Zanine – Imagn Images
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