It’s common knowledge that the Cardinals and Dolphins have quarterback problems. Both benched their guy this past year — although Kyler Murray’s situation in Arizona was a little weirder than Tua Tagovailoa’s in Miami. Both have been trying to find another team to take the resulting mess off their hands without much luck, thanks to the tens of millions in guaranteed money Murray and Tagovailoa are still owed. 

The most likely outcome is that both teams will cut the veterans in question, giving everyone involved a clean start. However, there’s some time until the Dolphins and Cardinals have to make a decision, giving them time to try and finagle a last-minute trade. 

Here’s a deep dive into both situations, including how everyone got to this point, the most likely landing spots for Murray and Tagovailoa, and even a look at whether a Cardinals/Dolphins swap could be a practical resolution. 

How Did We Get Here? 

A year ago at this time, the Cardinals and Dolphins both thought they had franchise quarterbacks who would be key components in future success. So what happened? It’s worth taking a step back to examine how each team found itself in its current predicament. 

Murray thrilled the fanbase in Arizona with some tremendous highs in the first few years after being drafted No. 1 overall in 2019. He was a Pro Bowler in 2020 and 2021, helping Arizona to a 7-1 start and a playoff berth in 2021. At 25 years old, he looked like a bright and rising star. 

The Cardinals moved to extend him after his third season (though they were prodded along perhaps a little sooner than they wanted by Murray and his agent). Even as the Cardinals gave Murray that contract, the infamous “homework” clause proved to be a telling omen for the current predicament. Persistent attitude and work ethic questions started to dog Murray, as did some injuries. 

Former Cardinals HC Kliff Kingsbury started out as a huge advocate for Murray, who he recruited and faced in college. By the end, though, their relationship felt strained. Jonathan Gannon was hired to replace Kingsbury in 2023 along with new GM Monti Ossenfort, and the two made it a point to embrace Murray privately and publicly, going to great lengths to show their commitment even as he was coming off a torn ACL from late in a frustrating 2022 season. 

Yet by 2025, the third year of the relationship, things came apart. Murray was hurt again, this time with a foot injury. The Cardinals didn’t put him on injured reserve for weeks, operating with veteran QB Jacoby Brissett instead while giving vague responses when asked about Murray’s timeline. Right when Murray seemed poised to return to full practice, he was subsequently downgraded back to out. Arizona placed him on injured reserve and said they were rolling with Brissett as the starter for the foreseeable future. 

It was clear that Gannon was done with Murray. While the hiring of new HC Mike LaFleur at least seemed to offer the possibility of things being repaired, the report that Murray and Ossenfort haven’t talked since the end of the season makes it clear Gannon wasn’t the only one with the organization who was ready to move on. 

Tagovailoa had a rockier start to his career. The No. 5 overall pick in 2020, Tagovailoa was yo-yoed in and out of the starting lineup as a rookie by then-Dolphins HC Brian Flores. Miami finished 10-6 but missed the playoffs. In his second season, Tagovailoa battled injuries but regained the starting job in the second half of the season and helped the team go on a run from 1-7 back to 9-8. 

Indirectly, though, Tagovailoa was the impetus for Miami firing Flores, who never meshed with Tagovailoa or seemed to believe in him as the starting quarterback. The Dolphins hired HC Mike McDaniel with the goal of getting the most out of Tagovailoa, and for two years he delivered. The Dolphins had one of the most productive and explosive offenses in the league, and Tagovailoa was the point guard. 

Even within that success, though, the seeds of how things would ultimately fall apart were present. Tagovailoa missed four games in 2022 with multiple concussions. In both years, the Dolphins started to wilt down the stretch as injuries mounted and the weather got colder. McDaniel’s offense was great when everything was optimal but didn’t have a lot of resiliency. 

Tagovailoa missed another six games in 2024 after he signed a massive contract extension, then the wheels came off in 2025. He regressed hard, finishing second in the NFL in interceptions. McDaniel, the coach who built the scheme around him, defended him to the hilt and lobbied for Tagovailoa to be paid, ended up benching him for seventh-round QB Quinn Ewers. 

Both Murray and Tagovailoa are strong candidates for a fresh start elsewhere. The challenge is the major extensions the two signed are making it tough for the Cardinals and Dolphins to get back any value in a trade. 

Contract Logistics

In this situation, the contracts matter almost as much as the players and their potential on-field contributions. So both deals merit a closer look. 

Murray signed a five-year, $230 million extension back in 2022 with two years left on his rookie deal, putting him on the books through 2028. He is owed $42.5 million this upcoming season, including a $22.8 million base salary and a $17 million roster bonus due on March 16. Of that $42.5 million, $36.8 million is already guaranteed, meaning Murray gets it no matter what. 

Additionally, Murray has a $19.5 million base salary in 2027 that becomes guaranteed on March 16. That pushes the total to $56.3 million in guarantees. Any team interested in trading for Murray has to be willing to take on that money. But if the Cardinals cut him before the 2027 guarantee vests, they’re just on the hook for the $36.8 million. 

That second vest is the root of Arizona’s difficulty in finding a buyer for Murray. In a vacuum, Murray’s talent and body of work would absolutely merit a significant return in a trade regardless of the other concerns around him. It might not be a first-round pick, but precedent suggests at least a Day 2 pick. But the Cardinals’ leverage is undercut by the date on that 2027 guarantee. Other teams are calculating they can wait Arizona out, forcing the Cardinals to cut Murray rather than put themselves on the hook for more guaranteed money. 

Once cut, Murray would sign for the veteran minimum with another team since the Cardinals would already be paying him nearly $37 million. At that number, he’s vastly more attractive to interested teams than he would be at a $56 million commitment. Arizona has probably offered to eat some money to facilitate a deal but they would need Murray’s cooperation to rework his deal. Murray’s preference undoubtedly would be to be a free agent and pick his next team, so he can put his thumb on the scale here and tilt things that way. 

Tagovailoa signed a four-year, $212 million deal ahead of the 2024 season, which was the last year of his rookie contract. He’s set to make $54 million in 2026, all of it guaranteed, consisting of a $39 million base salary and $15 million option bonus that must be exercised sometime between March 11 and March 21. Miami is on the hook for this money unless they find a trade partner. Additionally, $3 million of his 2027 salary becomes guaranteed on March 13. 

The Dolphins have been willing to pay down a big chunk of Tagovailoa’s compensation to try and entice another team to take the rest. Cutting Tagovailoa would trigger an NFL-record $99.2 million dead cap hit, a huge amount even if Miami can split it over two seasons with a June 1 designation. But Tagovailoa is virtually radioactive coming off last season. 

His performance is one thing, teams have some tolerance for poor performance when there are mitigating factors. What was worse for Tagovailoa was the leadership concerns that last year exposed, with multiple self-inflicted wounds in his public comments that he had to later walk back. Add in a limited physical skillset that it was clear the Dolphins had to coach around and a significant injury history, and plenty of teams won’t be interested in Tagovailoa even if he’s virtually free.  

For the Dolphins, the goal of trading Tagovailoa is to recoup a pick and some minimal savings. But there’s serious doubt about whether another team would be willing to pay even $10 million for Tagovailoa, and at that point Miami would be locking itself into taking most of that $99 million hit up front instead of spreading it out with the June 1 cut. Dolphins GM Jon Eric-Sullivan said this week it was probably not realistic to take all $99 million in one year, and they probably don’t feel much different about $89 million.  

Miami could hang on to Tagovailoa into the summer and hope a buyer emerges, as trading Tagovailoa after June 1 would have the same impact as a release. Yet it seems more likely that both sides are just ready for a clean break. 

Could Miami & Arizona Swap QBs?

Quarterback-for-quarterback trades are rare but also not unprecedented. It’s only been five years since the Rams traded Jared Goff to the Lions in a package for QB Matthew Stafford. Because both were on pricey second contracts, they had to be swapped to make room for the other on their new team. The Rams sent a couple of first-round picks along with Goff, which shows how they viewed Stafford in comparison. 

Murray and Tagovailoa are much closer to each other comparatively. In the 2025 QB Tiers, an in-depth survey of the league by the Athletic’s Mike Sando that offers an insightful window into how quarterbacks are viewed by the NFL, both Murray and Tagovailoa entered the season at the top of tier 3. That’s defined as a quarterback who is “a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.” They ranked 15th and 17th respectively in voting average. 

Voters thought Murray was the more talented player. There was a general sentiment he was a tier 2 talent with tier 3 results. He’s a year older than Tagovailoa and turns 29 in August, which is a consideration given how heavily he relies on his legs. Their contracts are remarkably similar. Arizona owes Murray $56.3 million in guarantees over the next two seasons if he’s not cut, Tagovailoa has $57 million in the same span. 

With similar bills and quarterbacks that need a fresh start, it’s worth asking if the two sides could just swap quarterbacks. Miami would get a more dynamic option at quarterback, while the Cardinals would get younger and add a passer who LaFleur’s offense, which has similar roots to what McDaniel ran. 

The way those commitments are structured is very different though. Tagovailoa’s guarantees are frontloaded to 2026, while Murray has $36.8 million guaranteed in 2026, $19.5 million guaranteed in 2027. A trade would leave the Dolphins with more entanglements in 2027 to sort out as opposed to a clean break. It’s already clear that this upcoming season will be viewed as a rebuilding year, and Murray’s unlikely to change their fortunes. 

A trade would also significantly increase the total cap dollars allocated to quarterback for Miami. Trading Tagovailoa would still leave $45 million in dead money, while adding a $42.5 million cap hit for Murray. If the Dolphins release Tagovailoa with a June 1 designation, he’d count just $67 million against the cap. In that scenario, they could still add Murray on a minimum deal if/when he’s cut by the Cardinals and still come out with a lower cap hit, plus no strings in 2027. 

The same calculus applies to the Cardinals. Trading Murray for Tagovailoa would result in $60 million on the cap accounting for Tagovailoa’s contract and the remaining dead money from Murray’s deal. Cutting Murray is a $54.7 million hit, $47.5 million if it’s post-June 1. They could sign Tagovailoa on a minimum deal and have it work out cheaper. 

In the end, the likeliest outcome for both quarterbacks appears to be a release, with both players free to pursue jobs with other teams while their former squads foot most of the bill. 

Most Likely Landing Spots

I would expect Murray to be in more demand than Tagovailoa because he’s shown far more potential as a high-end starter. He won’t be a fit for every team but there’s just more of a ceiling than there is for Tagovailoa, who might have to accept a backup job as he starts the process of rehabilitating his career. 

There are at least ten teams with a need at quarterback to varying degrees of severity, ranging from teams that would be trotting out recent Day 3 picks if the season started today to others that are looking for a little bit of insurance for their starter, who has some sort of injury or performance question mark. I’ll go through each team in some fashion but right off the top, here’s what I would bet is the eventual landing spot for each player

Murray likeliest landing spot: Cleveland Browns

The Browns have Shedeur Sanders, Deshaun Watson and Dillon Gabriel on the roster but they have left their options open to make further additions to the room this offseason, whether it’s the draft or free agency or something else. Cleveland’s front office leans heavily on analytics, perhaps more than any other organization, so the prospect of getting a decorated quarterback like Murray on a minimum contract would certainly be appealing. From their perspective, it’s a zero-risk, high upside move. 

New Browns HC Todd Monken has a strong history of working with athletic quarterbacks, and Murray projects better to his system than probably 90 percent of the other offenses in the league right now. It might be tough for the Browns to do better in terms of an outside addition. Packers QB Malik Willis looks like the top target for several teams, and the Browns do have a little bit of room to make a run at him. What’s better, though? Willis for over $30 million a year, or Murray for $1 million and some change? Willis is younger and has more potential, but still has just six starts under his belt. 

Murray also won’t necessarily have a long line of teams to pick from. His ideal fit would probably be the Vikings, along with every other available passer and their agent. It remains to be seen what the Vikings are looking to add to their room this offseason. Teams that are looking for more pocket passing types won’t be as interested in Murray, and some will have leadership questions from his time in Arizona. 

Second alternate: Miami Dolphins

It might not be in a trade but it does make some sense for Murray to land with the Dolphins. The key factor here is his price. For a Dolphins team that’s going to be saddled with $99.2 million in dead money over the next two years, adding a starting-caliber quarterback for the veteran minimum has to be an appealing proposition. They’re seriously considering rolling with 2025 seventh-round QB Quinn Ewers as the starter next year, partially because he’s cheap. 

There are fair questions about how well Murray fits with the Dolphins, who are clearly kicking off a deep rebuild. Dolphins OC Bobby Slowik will run a variant of the Shanahan/McVay style offense, which asks quarterbacks to play within structure. Murray has been in one of the branches of that system the last three years with mixed results, largely due to his tendency to freestyle. 

But for a minimum contract, there’s really no reason for the Dolphins not to roll the dice. There’s some upside here, too. Play-callers in this system have been fascinated by the idea of adding a mobile quarterback element to help stay one step ahead of all the defenses that are being built to slow the scheme down. Adding Murray’s speed to a skill group that includes WR Jaylen Waddle and RB De’Von Achane is fascinating. 

Murray is also young enough to become a longer-term answer for the Dolphins, who could franchise him in 2027 if he plays well. If he doesn’t, the Dolphins can hand things over to Ewers, no harm done. For his part, while he would almost certainly like to land with a team projected to do better in the standings, unless he’s willing to take a backup job, his options for that are going to be limited. 

Tagovailoa likeliest landing spot: Atlanta Falcons

Someone will roll the dice on Tagovailoa at a minimum contract. However, it’s hard to see many teams being eager to hand him a starting job given he just had a falling out with the only coach who’s been able to make him look like a solid NFL quarterback. His best bet is to land with a team that has an unsettled starter, giving him a potential path to the field over time. 

The Falcons fit the bill. Former top-ten QB Michael Penix Jr. is recovering from a torn ACL and it’s not yet clear if he will be ready in time for Week 1. Beyond that, it does not feel like the new regime of president Matt Ryan, GM Ian Cunningham and HC Kevin Stefanski is nearly as committed to Penix as their predecessors. They’ve all had multiple chances to indicate confidence in Penix as the starter and instead have talked their way around it. 

It doesn’t quite feel like the Falcons are ready to dump Penix but it does feel like they want a viable alternative. The challenge for Atlanta is finding that while not having a full complement of draft picks and still dealing with all the money invested in former QB Kirk Cousins. To that point, Tagovailoa’s minimum contract will be attractive. 

Tagovailoa would give the Falcons a proven backup to Penix with plenty of starts under his belt. As far as schemes go, Stefanski’s is also better suited to a player like Tagovailoa than others, as it prioritizes a point guard-style passer. He was a huge fan of Gabriel in Cleveland last year, who drew comparisons to Tagovailoa as a prospect. 

Second alternate: Los Angeles Rams

As Tagovailoa enters the rehabilitation phase of his career, the outlook shifts to more of a long-term approach. There’s a path that’s been charted here by others of taking a step back with a more successful organization as a backup, then trying to parlay that experience into a bigger role down the line. At just 28 years old, Tagovailoa has time for that. The best organization for him to land with would be the Rams. 

Rams HC Sean McVay is one of the elite play-callers the rest of the league measures itself against, and he has consistently been able to keep a quality pipeline of assistants, quarterbacks, ideas and innovation. Tagovailoa’s best years have come in a variant of McVay’s offense, so a stint under McVay would probably be his best shot at turning his career around. 

For the Rams, Tagovailoa would give them a younger and cheaper replacement for QB Jimmy Garoppolo if he leaves for other opportunities this offseason. If Tagovailoa sees the field for whatever reason, he could improve his value and either become a bridge option if starting QB Matthew Stafford retires, or become an asset for the Rams as a trade chip or in the compensatory picks formula. 

Other Teams

New York Jets

It will be hard for the Jets to sell Tagovailoa as a viable option and he might not be the best fit for OC Frank Reich, who prefers traditional pocket passers with size. The same is true for Murray. It’s hard to see Reich endorsing a move for Murray after how his last NFL season played out with Panthers QB Bryce Young. Murray doesn’t seem like a good fit with HC Aaron Glenn either. 

But the Jets have a type sometimes, and a move for Murray would be a “Jetsy” type of move, despite all the ways in which it doesn’t make sense. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

If veteran QB Aaron Rodgers decides to retire instead of play another season, Pittsburgh will be left in a bit of a pickle. However, I don’t foresee HC Mike McCarthy making Murray or Tagovailoa a priority. He’ll be looking for more accomplished pocket passers that he doesn’t have to tailor his scheme to as much. 

Minnesota Vikings

Tagovailoa might be more of an option for the Vikings with how cheap his contract is and some success in a scheme similar to HC Kevin O’Connell’s. Murray would be a fascinating option given his track record but signing him would mean pushing former QB J.J. McCarthy all the way to the back-burner. While Minnesota has talked about adding competition, I’m not sure they mean to that level. There would be questions about the chemistry of the quarterback room, too, and Murray’s fit in O’Connell’s system. 

Indianapolis Colts

The team will re-sign QB Daniel Jones and he is the starter when he’s healthy. His Achilles rehab could stretch on a bit, though, and he has a length injury history. This isn’t a fit for Murray but it could be for Tagovailoa. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Most people expect Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to be on the field in Week 1 despite his December torn ACL. It might not be a fair expectation for normal humans but Mahomes isn’t normal. Should he miss that mark, though, this could be an underrated landing spot for a more established quarterback. Both Murray and Tagovailoa would fit here, and this might be the one team Murray might be willing to be a backup for.

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