The arrow is pointing up for the Falcons in a critical element of their offensive arsenal.
Along with ample humidity, there is excitement in the air around Flowery Branch as the Atlanta Falcons embark on a 2025 season, hoping to end their seven-year playoff drought. While the infusion of youth on defense prompts much of that enthusiasm, the Falcons’ ability to make the playoffs likely falls squarely on the offense being the driving force.
Unlike on defense, the Falcons made minimal additions on offense this offseason. Instead, the team is optimistic that the pieces already assembled last year will improve thanks to development and growth in the second year with quarterback Michael Penix and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
While Penix gets a lot of attention due to the nature of his position, Robinson also deserves ample scrutiny. While Robinson did a fine job in his first year as an NFL play-caller, there is considerable room for growth. The biggest area is the play-action game’s impact for the Falcons’ offense.
Falcons must improve league-worst play-action attack
The Falcons were arguably the NFL’s worst play-action passing team. Last year, the team not only called the fewest play-action passes in the league, but was also the only team not to have a single touchdown pass off play action, ranking dead last in passer rating and completion rate off play action. In terms of expected points added (EPA) per play-action pass, the Falcons fared only slightly better, ranking 25th best according to Next Gen Stats.
When looking at these various play-action-based metrics, there’s a fairly strong correlation between team success and effective play-action passing, with 11 of the top 16 teams in EPA per play-action pass making the playoffs in 2024. This makes sense given that misdirection is an extremely valuable tool in any effective play-caller’s arsenal, acting as a force multiplier when attacking over the middle of the field
Besides Robinson, nearly all the play-calling disciples of the Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan coaching tree finished near the top of the league in EPA per play-action pass. No lineage of coaches collectively does a better job of marrying their run game to their passing game via play action than that group.
Yet, Robinson is the lone exception who struggled in this area. Of course, there are plenty of excuses and blame to go around, whether that centers on Kirk Cousins’ lack of mobility or Penix’s inexperience. But the bottom line remains that if the Falcons can significantly improve in this area, it’ll do wonders to improve their playoff chances in 2025.
Look no further than the Washington Commanders’ improvement a year ago. Washington ranked 31st in EPA per play-action pass under offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy in 2023, but then improved to 15th under Kliff Kingsbury in 2024, fueling their offensive turnaround and playoff push alongside the playmaking skills of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Falcons hope they can see similar results with Penix in his first full season as a starter.
Play action is baked into the Falcons’ offensive DNA
The Falcons should be getting better results, given that former head coach Arthur Smith primarily built this unit. Smith modeled the Falcons after his 2019 and 2020 Tennessee Titans offenses that were routinely at the top of the league in both play-action usage and effectiveness when measured by EPA per play.
In his three seasons in Atlanta, Smith’s offenses ranked among the top eight teams in play-action usage and hovered around the middle of the pack in effectiveness, ranking between 16th and 20th. There was an expectation that Robinson’s background and tutelage under McVay would lead to an improved play-action offense, and thus fuel the team’s playoff push a year ago.
Despite minimal play action, Robinson performed admirably scheming up an effective Falcons offense thanks to increased production from the team’s wide receivers under his watch. However, as good as the trio of Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud performed, they are probably not an elite enough trio to form the core identity of the offense. Instead, the team should rely heavily on a strong running game and a potent play-action attack that puts much less stress on the offensive line.
Not to mention, a better called offense should help those receivers shine even more. The Falcons finished last in the NFL in yards after catch (YAC) off play action, which is not a surprise given their minimal usage. But Next Gen Stats also tracks YAC Over Expected (YACOE), where the Falcons finished 31st with a big, fat zero yards over expected.
Contrast that to the days of Smith, where the Falcons routinely finished in the league’s upper half in both play-action YAC and YACOE, which came with wideouts considered far less explosive and dynamic than their current trio. That speaks to the weaker design of the offense. With considerably more speed at the skill positions, Robinson should have little issue outproducing Smith’s offenses.
Growth is likely and needed for the Falcons’ play-action game in 2025
Despite all these issues, there should be optimism that the play-action pass game will significantly improve for Robinson and the Falcons’ offense in 2025. Frankly, there’s nowhere else to go but up. It’s not a question of whether or not the team will be better executing the play-action pass; instead, it’s how much better.
If Robinson can resemble his peers and scheme up an effective and efficient play-action game, it’ll do wonders for the Falcons’ offense. From taking pressure off their offensive line to creating more explosive play opportunities for the receivers after the catch, the play-action passing game can be a potent weapon in the Falcons’ arsenal. More importantly, play-action simplifies reads for the quarterback.
While Penix’s poise and processing are potentially better than your typical young quarterback at this stage in his career, making things easier for him can only help. In light of recent revelations about Caleb Williams’ first-year struggles with the Chicago Bears, it’s critical that coaches provide a stable, nurturing environment to foster development for all young quarterbacks. For Penix, one of those elements should be improving this year’s offense with a healthy dosage of a robust, play-action passing attack.