The arrow is pointing up for the Falcons thanks to Michael Penix, but hitting on the QB doesn’t solve all their problems.
The Atlanta Falcons hope they’re on a promising path to long-term success, which they aim to realize by the end of the 2025 season.
Over the weekend, both Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot and owner Arthur Blank expressed their optimism about the current state of the Falcons. Yet despite that rosy outlook about the team’s present, their future is in flux. So much rests on the team’s ability to realize Fontenot’s long-term vision and plan, which has been five years in the making, with their first playoff berth since 2017.
The foundation of the team’s long-term success rests on the successful development of quarterback Michael Penix. If the Falcons have their next franchise quarterback, it will do wonders to stabilize their future, mirroring their past success with Matt Ryan under center.
However, hitting on the quarterback doesn’t erase or mitigate the many challenges facing Fontenot and the Falcons in the future. Much like Ryan did when he played under defensive-minded head coaches for all but one of his 14 seasons in Atlanta, Penix faces similar circumstances with head coach Raheem Morris currently at the helm.
Coordinator turnover could lead to an unstable offense
Ryan saw each of his first three offensive coordinators hired away to become head coaches elsewhere, introducing instability into the offense due to the vacillating quality of play-calling. Penix’s immediate success increases the potential that current play-caller Zac Robinson departs Atlanta soon, especially given the voracious appetite for offensive-minded head coaches in today’s NFL.
One strategy the Falcons could employ to increase the odds of retaining future successors to Robinson would be to target retread head coaches to call plays. Given the league’s craving for young, up-and-coming offensive minds, targeting older play-callers who have failed in previous head coaching stints could prove advantageous.
These candidates currently include Mike McCarthy, Frank Reich, Pat Shurmur, and Jay Gruden. They’d be less likely to get poached down the road if they succeed in Atlanta. However, the potential trade-off for prolonged stability at offensive coordinator may come from having offenses that are far from the cutting edge.
For example, Gruden worked with Morris during their shared days with Washington in 2014 when the former was the head coach. Yet, Gruden’s most recent experience as a play-caller came with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2020, resulting in a 1-15 record thanks in part to a 27th-ranked offense according to DVOA. Given how much team success is driven by offensive output in the modern NFL, a resume like Gruden’s at first glance doesn’t offer the firepower that will keep the Falcons in annual playoff contention.
Falcons’ future could be fueled by a defense-driven identity
Instead, the Falcons’ best chance at perennial contention may be mirroring the success of the Pittsburgh Steelers under defensive-minded head coach Mike Tomlin, especially during his 15 seasons coaching quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. That blueprint rested on a Steelers defense that consistently ranked among the elite in the NFL.
Even with the optimism surrounding the current upward direction of the Falcons’ defense under new defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, they appear years away from producing a unit that can consistently rank in the top 10. Such a defense-forward foundation will develop if the recent 2024 and 2025 defensive draft investments made by Fontenot pay off. Such a realization would be a historic achievement for Fontenot, given that steadfast defense has rarely been the Falcons’ identity throughout their history. Yet, in the meantime, the team’s offense will be at the vanguard of any impending success.
Upcoming extensions on offense could crush the team’s salary cap
The Falcons expect a potent, high-powered offense for several years to come, thanks to Penix being flanked by wide receiver Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson, who are all on the verge of entering their primes. Both London and Robinson are due for long-term extensions over the next few offseasons if they can maintain their current rate of production.
Yet, top-of-market extensions for London and Robinson will also have their drawbacks, thanks to an impending salary cap crunch, which will only intensify when it comes time to pay Penix down the road. With current trends, Penix could be due for a massive extension before the 2028 season. While a few years away, it’ll be here sooner than you realize, giving Fontenot only a few offseasons to ready the roster.
Between now and then, the market for quarterbacks is only likely to balloon past Dak Prescott’s $60 million-per-year deal, which currently makes him the NFL’s highest-paid player. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and C.J. Stroud may each have opportunities to reset the quarterback market between now and 2028. Not to mention, Jordan Love and Kyler Murray could sign new deals that also raise prices, even if they don’t reset the top of the market. Combined with the competition between Penix and the other passers drafted atop the 2024 NFL Draft in a bid to outdo one another on their second contracts, there are several factors potentially increasing the cost of any future Penix extension.
Fontenot will have to transform his approach to the draft
With so much future cap space potentially locked into a handful of players, the Falcons’ long-term salvation will rest on Fontenot’s ability to continuously offset their cost by adding good, cheap players via the draft. However, his aggressive strategy of trading up in almost every draft is undoubtedly counterproductive. With the team only slated with five selections in the upcoming 2026 draft, Fontenot is going to have to reconsider his current approach. Accumulating more picks by trading back is the best way to maximize the team’s chances of finding more young, inexpensive talent to rebuild the defense, reload along the offensive line, and support Penix with more firepower at the skill positions.
That novel strategy may be set in motion soon with the Falcons’ potential need to replace multiple starters and contributors set to hit free agency in 2026. Tyler Allgeier, Arnold Ebiketie, Kaden Elliss, Leonard Floyd, Ray-Ray McCloud, Kaleb McGary, David Onyemata, and Kyle Pitts are among those set to become free agents after this season. A successful 2025 campaign will incentivize the Falcons to re-sign many of their impending free agents, thereby maintaining continuity and preventing immediate regression following a potential return to the playoffs this year. However, with the Falcons currently projected by OvertheCap.com to have less than $1 million in cap space entering next offseason, the team will be forced to be economical with its spending for another offseason.
An unsuccessful 2025 season could lead to the dismissal of Fontenot, tasking a new general manager with fulfilling these same challenges of building around Penix.
As Blank noted on Saturday, every NFL owner feels great about their respective team at this point in the calendar:
“I like where we are. But you’re probably going to get 31 other owners who will probably say that. But I feel strongly that we’re in a different place than we’ve been in the last few years.”
But the pivotal question will be how ownership feels about the team several months from now, which will reflect Fontenot and others’ job security. Eventually, we’ll have our answer. But in the meantime, winning is the Falcons’ only panacea for all their future ailments. Simply put, if the Falcons can’t find a way to field a winner in Fontenot’s fifth year, then these will be somebody else’s problems.