Figuring out the hardest matchups, the teams Atlanta must beat to prove they’re for real, and more.
The 2025 NFL schedule will be released at 8 p.m. Wednesday night on the NFL’s network of applications and streaming services. All 32 teams and their fans will better understand how the season could shake out and what elements they could be playing in later on in the season.
This is crucial for the Atlanta Falcons as they travel to the Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, and New York Jets, which are potential cold-weather teams that play outside.
Before we start this exercise, let’s not go down the “every game is a must-win in the NFL” route. Atlanta should try to win each of these games. That’s a given.
However, with each game, there is something new that you can learn about yourself as a team. How competitive can we be in the grand scheme of the NFL? How good is our offense? How sustainable is the current structure of the team? That’s what this exercise is for.
For a reminder, here are all of the Atlanta Falcons’ opponents for next season:
In Division
Vs. Carolina
Vs. New Orleans
Vs. Tampa Bay
@ Carolina
@ New Orleans
@ Tampa Bay
NFC West
Vs. Los Angeles Rams
Vs. Seattle Seahawks
AFC East
Vs. Buffalo Bills
Vs. Miami Dolphins
@ New England Patriots
@ New York Jets
2nd Place Finishes
Vs. Washington Commanders (NFC East)
@ Minnesota Vikings (NFC North)
@ Indianapolis Colts (AFC South)
Until we know what order Atlanta will play these teams, we will utilize this opportunity to tier the Falcons’ 2025 non-divisional opponents into three tiers:
- How Good Are We?
- Must-Haves for the Playoffs
- Don’t Mess This Up
I’m not going to add in the divisional opponents simply because, they play them twice a year. We have a fairly good understanding of what they are.
How Good Are We?
vs. Buffalo Bills
@ Minnesota Vikings
The Buffalo Bills, as long as they have Josh Allen, will continue to be potential difference-makers in the grand scheme of the NFL. According to Pro Football & Sports Network, they are the toughest opponent on the schedule for the Falcons. Looking at Atlanta’s schedule, this is maybe the only truly complete team that also has continuity on both sides of the ball. The physical nature of Buffalo’s offense with Allen and James Cook, along with their offensive line and a defense that now consists of Joey Bosa and Greg Rousseau on the edges, will make life tough for a young Falcons team.
The Vikings’ defense makes me very nervous. Adding Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave alongside Harrison Phillips on the defensive line, while keeping Andrew Van Ginkel, Josh Metellus, Harrison Smith, and the other pieces of that defense that allow the great Brian Flores to do his funky stuff, is a concerning place to be with a young quarterback. Add in the fact that they have to go to Minneapolis to play, even if it’s a dome, and you have a recipe for a tough matchup.
If the Falcons can go 1-1 between these two teams, that would be a solid place to be. But staying competitive with both squads would be a sign that Atlanta is moving in the right direction.
Playoff Must-Haves
The entire NFC West
vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. Washington Commanders
The entire NFC West is in play to be potential wild-card teams. The Rams are a team that will be improved on the offensive side of the ball with the addition of Davante Adams and being able to keep Matthew Stafford for another year. Their defense is also full of intriguing young talent.
The Seahawks and Cardinals are both teams that provide must-win games, as they will both be vying for those same tiebreakers Atlanta will be vying for if they can’t overtake the Bucs in the division race. The 49ers will usually get the benefit of the doubt, but this is the most vulnerable they’ve been under Kyle Shanahan and the Falcons should be able to take advantage.
The Washington Commanders…that just feels personal. Atlanta has played Washington in each of the past four years, an indicator that they are pretty similar in terms of their franchise. Except, they’re not.
Washington has beaten Atlanta all four times, and now, they have an NFC Championship run to show for their hard work. The Falcons don’t. What Atlanta does have is a quarterback that can hopefully go toe-to-toe with Washington’s Jayden Daniels.
Miami is on here because, while this doesn’t directly affect the playoff status as an AFC team, it feels like a good litmus test to how good Atlanta really is, almost like a Mendoza line for if you deserve to be a playoff team or not. If Miami comes in and wrecks shop against your team, especially at home, then you might not be as ready for contention as you expected. If you’re able to beat them, you’re more than likely ready to compete in the postseason. They’re not a great team, but their speed and explosive nature means they will test whether this defense is up to snuff (and whether the offense can keep up).
Don’t Mess This Up
@ New England Patriots
@ New York Jets
@ Indianapolis Colts
Of course, the three opponents Atlanta may be shoo-ins to be favored against are all on the road. However, that doesn’t take away from the fact that the Falcons can’t afford to drop these.
If New England or New York are in the November, December, or even January part of the schedule, that would not be ideal. However, both teams are very beatable, despite the possible weather conditions. New York is undergoing a facelift with new head coach Aaron Glenn and journeyman quarterback Justin Fields, and the Patriots are going to see if they can find a new identity with an old face in Mike Vrabel. Both teams expect to be run-heavy, so these will be good tests to see if Atlanta’s plan against the run, whatever that may be, is effective.
Indianapolis is in a state of flux right now as they figure out if they have their guy in Anthony Richardson. If Richardson is the real deal, then you can probably see a path where a Richardson-Jonathan Taylor backfield could cause the same problems as a Fields-Breece Hall-led backfield above in New York.
But if Atlanta is who they should be on both sides of the ball, all three of these games, while not easy, should be wins. And they need to be wins if they expect to be a playoff team in 2025.