A loss opens the door for Tampa Bay to reclaim the division lead
Make that three consecutive losses for the Atlanta Falcons, who have not tasted victory in a month and who are now absolutely reeling.
At one point sitting at 6-3 and looking to possibly put the finishing touches on the division, the Birds find themselves once again in an absolute dogfight with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have won back to back games to reclaim a tie atop the NFC South at 6-6.
Atlanta is still ahead by way of tiebreaker, but it’s getting to be a dangerous territory for the team that was at one point thought to be a shoe in to claim their first division title since 2016, especially with a date against the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings up next.
Let’s take a look at the circumstances surrounding the Falcons if they beat the Vikings in Week 14, as well as looking at the scenario if they lose.
If the Falcons win
They will have righted ship a little bit with a massive victory in a game which, quite frankly, not many people expect them to win. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are once again favorites this weekend against the Las Vegas Raiders; if they win again it will mean that Atlanta has kept pace in moving to 7-6.
The Bucs will be favorites in all but one of their remaining games. If they happen to go 4-1 in that stretch, then Atlanta will need to match that record. Victory against Minnesota will go a long way in that, as they have three games they will be favored in against the Giants, Raiders and Panthers. The Falcons will need to take care of business in those matchups while beating the Vikings or Commanders in addition, in this scenario.
Atlanta can actually still also make some upward movement in the NFC playoff picture, if the Cardinals beat the Seahawks this weekend. All three of Atlanta, Seattle and Arizona will be tied at 7-6, but the Cardinals will lead the NFC West by way of divisional record and the Falcons will be ahead of them by way of conference record.
Kirk Cousins will have a big victory against his former team and this would go a long way in restoring some of the fanbase’s confidence in him after last weekend’s catastrophe.
If the Falcons lose
They will suffer their longest losing streak since the 2022 season, which was ironically the skid that basically eliminated them from playoff contention that year.
Tampa Bay will be able to move into sole possession of first place in the division for the first time since Week 4. After Atlanta won the first matchup in Week 5, they have controlled the top of the NFC South ever since. If the Bucs do win the rest of the games they are favored in, it will mean that the Falcons must win out to win the South.
If Tampa does win, then Atlanta can fall to as low as 10th place in the NFC standings, and could feasibly be tied for the fourth worst record in the conference. We may need to start keeping tabs on draft positioning, the way we have for each of the past seven years at around this time.
Currently with a 59% chance of making the playoffs, playoffstatus.com’s algorithm puts the Falcons at a 50% chance with a defeat combined with a Bucs win — a coinflip.