There’s more at stake than just the standings.
The Falcons gear up for an early season rivalry week as they play their first divisional matchup of the season, against the New Orleans Saints.
Atlanta is coming off of a tight loss on Sunday Night Football against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, and now after back to back primetime games showcasing their team to the nation, they are back on the customary early Sunday afternoon slate.
The loss dropped them to 1-2, with their two division rivals — New Orleans and Tampa Bay — each also losing last weekend to fall to 2-1. The Falcons will look to keep their rivals from opening up a wider early season lead against them in the standings.
Let’s take a look at the circumstances surrounding the Falcons if they beat the Saints in Week 4, as well as looking at the scenario if they lose.
If the Falcons win
They will move to 2-2 on the season, and this record will look even better with the team’s context than being just the run of the mill .500 mark at around the quarter mark of the season. Their divisional record would be 1-0, and record against the NFC will move to 2-0. Atlanta at 1-2 right now has faced the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far (combined opponents record of 8-1), and as of now project to have the easiest schedule in the NFL over the course of the rest of the season.
New Orleans will somewhat be crashing back down to earth following an explosive 2-0 start, where they scored over 40 points in each game. They will fall to 2-2 with their arrow pointing down and their fanbase likely asking some questions.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Philadelphia Eagles this weekend. If they lose that game, there will be at least three 2-2 teams in the NFC South, and possible four if Carolina also wins, but the Falcons will own first place by way of divisional record tiebreaker. No matter what the Bucs do, Atlanta will set up a showdown against them on Thursday Night Football next week for first place in the division with a victory here.
After beating them in Week 12 last season, Atlanta will have beaten the Saints at home for the second year in a row, something that has not happened since the 2016 and 2017 seasons — the last time the Falcons went to the playoffs.
If the Falcons lose
They will fall to 1-3 on the season, and there will no doubt be some panic among the fanbase. Going 1-2 against a gauntlet schedule to open up the season is understandable, but following it with a home divisional loss is another thing entirely.
The Saints will ensure at least a 2.0 game lead ahead of Atlanta in the NFC South with a 3-1 record, and their own divisional record will move to 2-0 while Atlanta’s falls to 0-1. Tampa Bay could also open up their own 2.0 game lead over Atlanta with a win over the Eagles.
Speaking of the Bucs, the pressure will be immense in the Falcons’ Week 5 matchup against them to not fall to 1-4 (and 0-2 in the division). At that point, the season could start getting away very quickly.
New Orleans will have won 11 of their past 14 matchups against the Atlanta Falcons and will take the lead in the all time head to head series, 56-55. This would mark their first lead over the Falcons head to head since it was 1-0 way back in 1967.