The most important game of 2024 thus far.
The two NFC South giants are both reeling, and coming into what is essentially the most important matchup of the season thus far licking their wounds a little bit.
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off of their most lopsided defeat of the season, losing to the Seahawks by 20 at home, following a fourth quarter unraveling which featured three Kirk Cousins turnovers in succession.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had an even worse evening one day later on the national stage. They lost by 10 against the Baltimore Ravens (in a game which was not as close as the scoreline indicates) while seeing their two best wide receivers — Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — both go down due to multi-week injuries. Godwin in particular looks to be done for the season following a gruesome ankle injury, which happened during garbage time.
Each sitting at 4-3, the stage is now set for a massive contest which will determine who gets control of the division going into the middle of the season.
Let’s take a look at the circumstances surrounding the Falcons if they beat the Buccaneers in Week 8, as well as looking at the scenario if they lose.
If the Falcons win
They will achieve their best start to a season after eight games (right around the halfway point) since the 2016 campaign, which was also the last time they won the division.
The most important thing is that Atlanta would move to a full game ahead of the Bucs and would guarantee themselves the head to head tiebreaker, which could be gargantuan given that this is quickly turning into a two horse race for the division once again. For all intents and purposes, the lead would essentially be 1.5 games.
Beyond that, Tampa has a very difficult two games stretch coming up after Atlanta, having to face both of last year’s Super Bowl participants back to back. The Falcons would have a golden opportunity to start creating some seperation at the top of the division for the first time this season.
Atlanta would move to an incredibly impressive 4-0 in the division, guaranteeing their first winning record within the NFC South since the 2019 season, when they went 4-2. Their conference record would also be bolstered to an impressive 5-1.
If the Falcons lose
For the second straight season, the Falcons will suffer a massive defeat against Tampa Bay in the second matchup of the season, in a scenario where they feasibly could have taken firm control of the division. Last season, the loss to the Bucs in Week 14 ultimately cost them the division title.
Tampa Bay will once again go in front of the Falcons atop the NFC South, and re-establish the full game lead they had before losing in Atlanta a few weeks ago. The division will still remain tightly contested, but the Birds will know they let a golden opportunity slip through their fingers.
New Orleans will also have an opportunity to get to within one game of the .500 Falcons, if they win this weekend in LA against the Chargers, meaning that the Falcons will once again be in the middle of a dogfight.
The NFC looks tightly contested early on. Currently, the 4-2 Philadelphia Eagles (who have a better record than Atlanta) are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. A loss will certainly kick the Falcons not just off the top spot in the South, but also outside of the playoff picture entirely at around the season’s midway point. At present, a .500 record gets you the 10th seed in the NFC.
Tampa Bay will also re-take the all time head to head lead over Atlanta, 32-31, becoming the only NFC South team with a winning record against the Birds.