Winans has had success in the minors and looks to bring it to the majors in his opportunity
Allan Winans is set to make his 2024 debut for the Atlanta Braves, in what will likely be a spot start as the Braves determine the way forward with Spencer Strider likely out for a long period of time with UCL damage to his elbow.
The Braves will continue their four-game series at home against the New York Mets where they look to ensure at least a series split.
Winans did start six games for the Braves last season in which he made it through 32.1 innings with a sub-optimal 5.29 ERA. As we know, small sample sizes can result in ERAs that can be deceiving. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) was much lower at 4.09, his expected ERA (xERA) was 4.24, and his expected FIP (xFIP) was 3.97. His strikeout to walk ratio was also promising at 4.25.
In his one start so far for Gwinnett, Winans went 5.2 innings in which he gave up two earned runs, one walk, and had five strikeouts. In 2023 he had a solid year in Gwinnett with a 2.85 ERA over 126.1 innings with an excellent 1.084 WHIP.
Alonso, Lindor, McNeil, Narváez, Nimmo, and Stewart all faced Winans in his short stint in the majors last season. All but Nimmo has at least one hit against him. It will be interesting to see if the Mets choose to start their backup catcher Narváez against him or their fourth outfielder DJ Stewart, who both have a 1.400 OPS against Winans in five at bats. If the Mets choose to go with Alvarez (who has never faced Winans), and their regulars in the outfield, then the next best success rate against Winans goes to Jeff McNeil. McNeil has an OPS of 1.000 and a batting average of .500 against Winans in six at bats.
The Mets will be bringing their opening day starter to the mound in Jose Quintana who has faced many of the Braves starters a notable number of times in his thirteen-year career. Quintana has been able to keep runs off the board at a solid rate with an ERA of 2.61. However, his 5.94 FIP, 1.645 WHIP, and unsustainable baserunner strand rate of 98.6 suggest that he has been extremely lucky to keep his ERA as low as it has been. Is tonight the night that it changes?
Orlando Arcia has seen Quintana far more than any other hitter with thirty-two at bats against him, but has struggled to a .125 batting average. The two matchups to keep an eye on are Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna. Albies is arguably a top five hitter in the MLB against LHP, so it is no surprise that in ten at bats he has crushed Quintana. He owns a 2.036 OPS against him with two home runs. Ozuna has seen him twenty-two times with success. He owns a .455 batting average and a 1.182 OPS against Quintana.
It will be fun tonight to see Winans comes in clutch in his spot start as he tries to earn a more permanent role, as well as to see if Arcia can finally get to Quintana. If Albies and Ozuna continue their success against Quintana, the Mets may have to score quite a few runs to keep the game close.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Wednesday, April 10, 7:20 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: Bally Sports South
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan